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8 posts
Forecasting & Prediction
AI Persuasion
Forecasts (Specific Predictions)
7 posts
Technological Forecasting
Transformative AI
Organization Updates
Progress Studies
Double-Crux
74
AI strategy nearcasting
HoldenKarnofsky
3mo
3
252
What 2026 looks like
Daniel Kokotajlo
1y
98
25
Forecasting ML Benchmarks in 2023
jsteinhardt
5mo
19
64
Risks from AI persuasion
Beth Barnes
12mo
15
15
Annual AGI Benchmarking Event
Lawrence Phillips
3mo
3
59
Forecasting progress in language models
Matthew Barnett
1y
5
66
Persuasion Tools: AI takeover without AGI or agency?
Daniel Kokotajlo
2y
24
42
Forecasting AI Progress: A Research Agenda
rossg
2y
4
80
Announcing Epoch: A research organization investigating the road to Transformative AI
Jsevillamol
5mo
2
137
Christiano, Cotra, and Yudkowsky on AI progress
Eliezer Yudkowsky
1y
95
130
Conversation on technology forecasting and gradualism
Richard_Ngo
1y
31
93
More Christiano, Cotra, and Yudkowsky on AI progress
Eliezer Yudkowsky
1y
30
40
Mathematical Models of Progress?
abramdemski
1y
8
29
[AN #121]: Forecasting transformative AI timelines using biological anchors
Rohin Shah
2y
5
39
For the past, in some ways only, we are moral degenerates
Stuart_Armstrong
3y
17