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8 posts
Forecasting & Prediction
AI Persuasion
Forecasts (Specific Predictions)
7 posts
Technological Forecasting
Transformative AI
Organization Updates
Progress Studies
Double-Crux
486
What 2026 looks like
Daniel Kokotajlo
1y
98
84
AI strategy nearcasting
HoldenKarnofsky
3mo
3
82
Persuasion Tools: AI takeover without AGI or agency?
Daniel Kokotajlo
2y
24
72
Risks from AI persuasion
Beth Barnes
12mo
15
49
Forecasting progress in language models
Matthew Barnett
1y
5
47
Forecasting ML Benchmarks in 2023
jsteinhardt
5mo
19
36
Forecasting AI Progress: A Research Agenda
rossg
2y
4
33
Annual AGI Benchmarking Event
Lawrence Phillips
3mo
3
110
Announcing Epoch: A research organization investigating the road to Transformative AI
Jsevillamol
5mo
2
97
Christiano, Cotra, and Yudkowsky on AI progress
Eliezer Yudkowsky
1y
95
84
Conversation on technology forecasting and gradualism
Richard_Ngo
1y
31
77
More Christiano, Cotra, and Yudkowsky on AI progress
Eliezer Yudkowsky
1y
30
25
For the past, in some ways only, we are moral degenerates
Stuart_Armstrong
3y
17
25
[AN #121]: Forecasting transformative AI timelines using biological anchors
Rohin Shah
2y
5
16
Mathematical Models of Progress?
abramdemski
1y
8