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44 posts
Fermi estimate
Risk aversion
Model uncertainty
Disentanglement research
Crucial consideration
Philanthropic diversification
Moral offsetting
Meat-eater problem
Broad vs. narrow interventions
Crux
Alignment tax
Sequence vs. cluster thinking
13 posts
Cluelessness
Indirect long-term effects
Hilary Greaves
112
Clarifications on diminishing returns and risk aversion in giving
Robert_Wiblin
25d
25
15
How Many Lives Does X-Risk Work Save From Nonexistence On Average?
Jordan Arel
12d
10
13
Simple BOTEC on X-Risk Work for Neartermists
Phosphorous
18d
10
13
Refuting longtermism with Fermat's Last Theorem
astupple
4mo
32
108
EAs underestimate uncertainty in cause prioritisation
freedomandutility
3mo
20
65
Meat Externalities
Richard Y Chappell
5mo
12
48
Why does GiveWell not provide lower and upper estimates for the cost-effectiveness of its top charities?
Vasco Grilo
4mo
8
46
Introduction to Fermi estimates
NunoSempere
3mo
5
27
Guesstimate Algorithm for Medical Research
Elizabeth
2mo
2
4
How much donations are needed to neutralise the annual x-risk footprint of the mean human?
Vasco Grilo
2mo
2
28
Concerns with Difference-Making Risk Aversion
Charlotte
6mo
1
9
Are poultry birds really important? Yes...
Vasco Grilo
6mo
2
4
Research help CO2 offsetting/compensation programs: How to evaluate them for impact? Alternatives to carbon offsetting? etc.
Marek Veneny
7mo
4
23
Should Effective Altruists Focus More on Movement Building?
Aaron Bergman
1y
4
117
Evidence, cluelessness, and the long term - Hilary Greaves
james
2y
85
23
We’re really bad at guessing the future
Benj Azose
4mo
2
105
A practical guide to long-term planning – and suggestions for longtermism
weeatquince
1y
12
30
Leveraging finance to increase resilience to GCRs
PhilC
10mo
8
54
Doing good while clueless
Milan_Griffes
4y
8
5
Heuristics for clueless agents: how to get away with ignoring what matters most in ordinary decision-making
Global Priorities Institute
2y
0
32
What consequences?
Milan_Griffes
5y
22
12
“Just take the expected value” – a possible reply to concerns about cluelessness
Milan_Griffes
5y
31
41
What's your prior probability that "good things are good" (for the long-term future)?
Linch
10mo
12
43
Complex cluelessness as credal fragility
Gregory Lewis
1y
50
22
How tractable is cluelessness?
Milan_Griffes
4y
2
4
Has anyone wrote something using moral cluelessness to "debunk" anti-consequentialist thought experiments?
capybaralet
1y
1
37
What should we call the other problem of cluelessness?
Owen Cotton-Barratt
1y
22