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meritocratic
regular
democratic
hot
top
alive
11 posts
Altruistic wager
Pascal's mugging
14 posts
Expected value
56
Expected value theory is fanatical, but that's a good thing
HaydenW
2y
20
44
Layman’s Summary of Resolving Pascallian Decision Problems with Stochastic Dominance
Ben_West
1y
11
28
Tiny Probabilities of Vast Utilities: Defusing the Initial Worry and Steelmanning the Problem
kokotajlod
4y
10
25
Metaethical Fanaticism (Dialogue)
Lukas_Gloor
2y
10
24
Tiny Probabilities of Vast Utilities: A Problem for Long-Termism?
kokotajlod
4y
17
16
Interview with Tom Chivers: “AI is a plausible existential risk, but it feels as if I’m in Pascal’s mugging”
felix.h
1y
1
15
Does this solve Pascal's Muggings?
Sanjay
3mo
26
10
Tiny Probabilities of Vast Utilities: Bibliography and Appendix
kokotajlod
4y
0
9
Pascal's Mugging
EA Handbook
13y
0
6
Pascal's Mugging and abandoning credences
AndreaSR
1y
9
0
SBF, Pascal's Mugging, and a Proposed Solution
Cole Killian
1mo
0
77
Do Brains Contain Many Conscious Subsystems? If So, Should We Act Differently?
Bob Fischer
15d
7
57
The Maximum Impact Fund is now the Top Charities Fund
GiveWell
3mo
3
36
Mundane trouble with EV / utility
Ben Esche
1y
17
30
Should strong longtermists really want to minimize existential risk?
tobycrisford
16d
9
17
Expected Value
james
2y
1
16
A General Treatment of the Moral Value of Information
Hazelfire
1y
0
15
High-risk high-reward philanthropy: applying venture capital concepts to doing good
James Ozden
5mo
2
13
My notes on: Why we can’t take expected value estimates literally (even when they’re unbiased)
Vasco Grilo
8mo
0
12
EV Maximization for Humans
Sharmake
3mo
0
11
Protecting EV calculations against motivated reasoning
freedomandutility
8d
0
11
A model about the effect of total existential risk on career choice
Jonas Moss
3mo
4
5
Biting the Bullet on Pascal's Mugging
Matthew Barber
3mo
0
5
A Paradox for Tiny Probabilities and Enormous Values
Global Priorities Institute
1y
1
1
Expected Value
EA Handbook
5mo
1