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62 posts
AI forecasting
23 posts
Paul Christiano
Eliezer Yudkowsky
AI takeoff
Epoch
Fund for Alignment Research (FAR)
163
Samotsvety's AI risk forecasts
elifland
3mo
30
148
Survey on AI existential risk scenarios
Sam Clarke
1y
7
89
A Bird's Eye View of the ML Field [Pragmatic AI Safety #2]
ThomasW
7mo
2
87
2022 AI expert survey results
Zach Stein-Perlman
4mo
7
83
AI timelines via bioanchors: the debate in one place
Will Aldred
4mo
6
78
Disagreement with bio anchors that lead to shorter timelines
mariushobbhahn
1mo
1
75
AI Timelines: Where the Arguments, and the "Experts," Stand
Holden Karnofsky
1y
2
75
A concern about the “evolutionary anchor” of Ajeya Cotra’s report on AI timelines.
NunoSempere
4mo
43
72
Roodman's Thoughts on Biological Anchors
lukeprog
3mo
7
69
AI Forecasting Research Ideas
Jaime Sevilla
1mo
1
62
Report on Semi-informative Priors for AI timelines (Open Philanthropy)
Tom_Davidson
1y
6
59
Ajeya's TAI timeline shortened from 2050 to 2040
Zach Stein-Perlman
4mo
2
53
My attempt to think about AI timelines
Ben Snodin
1y
20
47
Forecasting thread: How does AI risk level vary based on timelines?
elifland
3mo
8
257
On Deference and Yudkowsky's AI Risk Estimates
Ben Garfinkel
6mo
188
182
Announcing Epoch: A research organization investigating the road to Transformative AI
Jaime Sevilla
5mo
11
74
Introducing the Fund for Alignment Research (We're Hiring!)
AdamGleave
5mo
3
60
Discussion with Eliezer Yudkowsky on AGI interventions
RobBensinger
1y
35
60
Grokking “Semi-informative priors over AI timelines”
anson
6mo
1
46
Shulman and Yudkowsky on AI progress
CarlShulman
1y
0
43
Grokking “Forecasting TAI with biological anchors”
anson
6mo
0
42
Yudkowsky and Christiano discuss "Takeoff Speeds"
EliezerYudkowsky
1y
0
42
Continuity Assumptions
Jan_Kulveit
6mo
4
34
My Understanding of Paul Christiano's Iterated Amplification AI Safety Research Agenda
Chi
2y
3
31
MIRI announces new "Death With Dignity" strategy (Yudkowsky, 2022)
Will Aldred
5mo
0
31
"Slower tech development" can be about ordering, gradualness, or distance from now
MichaelA
1y
3
27
MIRI Conversations: Technology Forecasting & Gradualism (Distillation)
TheMcDouglas
5mo
9
26
Knowing About Biases Can Hurt People (Yudkowsky, 2007)
Will Aldred
4mo
1