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15 posts
Forecasting & Prediction
AI Persuasion
Technological Forecasting
Forecasts (Specific Predictions)
Transformative AI
Progress Studies
Organization Updates
Double-Crux
5 posts
Dialogue (format)
History
Efficient Market Hypothesis
79
AI strategy nearcasting
HoldenKarnofsky
3mo
3
369
What 2026 looks like
Daniel Kokotajlo
1y
98
95
Announcing Epoch: A research organization investigating the road to Transformative AI
Jsevillamol
5mo
2
117
Christiano, Cotra, and Yudkowsky on AI progress
Eliezer Yudkowsky
1y
95
107
Conversation on technology forecasting and gradualism
Richard_Ngo
1y
31
36
Forecasting ML Benchmarks in 2023
jsteinhardt
5mo
19
24
Annual AGI Benchmarking Event
Lawrence Phillips
3mo
3
85
More Christiano, Cotra, and Yudkowsky on AI progress
Eliezer Yudkowsky
1y
30
68
Risks from AI persuasion
Beth Barnes
12mo
15
54
Forecasting progress in language models
Matthew Barnett
1y
5
74
Persuasion Tools: AI takeover without AGI or agency?
Daniel Kokotajlo
2y
24
39
Forecasting AI Progress: A Research Agenda
rossg
2y
4
28
Mathematical Models of Progress?
abramdemski
1y
8
27
[AN #121]: Forecasting transformative AI timelines using biological anchors
Rohin Shah
2y
5
181
Biology-Inspired AGI Timelines: The Trick That Never Works
Eliezer Yudkowsky
1y
143
184
Birds, Brains, Planes, and AI: Against Appeals to the Complexity/Mysteriousness/Efficiency of the Brain
Daniel Kokotajlo
1y
85
145
Cortés, Pizarro, and Afonso as Precedents for Takeover
Daniel Kokotajlo
2y
75
54
Security Mindset and Takeoff Speeds
DanielFilan
2y
23
18
What are the best precedents for industries failing to invest in valuable AI research?
Daniel Kokotajlo
2y
17