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19 posts
AI Timelines
Crucial Considerations
20 posts
Forecasting & Prediction
Technological Forecasting
History
AI Persuasion
Dialogue (format)
Transformative AI
Organization Updates
Efficient Market Hypothesis
Forecasts (Specific Predictions)
Progress Studies
Double-Crux
72
Disagreement with bio anchors that lead to shorter timelines
Marius Hobbhahn
1mo
16
287
Two-year update on my personal AI timelines
Ajeya Cotra
4mo
60
107
How might we align transformative AI if it’s developed very soon?
HoldenKarnofsky
3mo
17
164
Deepmind's Gato: Generalist Agent
Daniel Kokotajlo
7mo
61
45
A review of the Bio-Anchors report
jylin04
2mo
4
44
AGI Timelines Are Mostly Not Strategically Relevant To Alignment
johnswentworth
3mo
35
137
Comments on Carlsmith's “Is power-seeking AI an existential risk?”
So8res
1y
13
212
Fun with +12 OOMs of Compute
Daniel Kokotajlo
1y
78
255
Are we in an AI overhang?
Andy Jones
2y
109
69
A comment on Ajeya Cotra's draft report on AI timelines
Matthew Barnett
9mo
13
90
Shulman and Yudkowsky on AI progress
Eliezer Yudkowsky
1y
16
207
Draft report on AI timelines
Ajeya Cotra
2y
56
34
Grokking “Forecasting TAI with biological anchors”
anson.ho
6mo
0
133
Forecasting Thread: AI Timelines
Amandango
2y
95
79
AI strategy nearcasting
HoldenKarnofsky
3mo
3
369
What 2026 looks like
Daniel Kokotajlo
1y
98
95
Announcing Epoch: A research organization investigating the road to Transformative AI
Jsevillamol
5mo
2
181
Biology-Inspired AGI Timelines: The Trick That Never Works
Eliezer Yudkowsky
1y
143
117
Christiano, Cotra, and Yudkowsky on AI progress
Eliezer Yudkowsky
1y
95
107
Conversation on technology forecasting and gradualism
Richard_Ngo
1y
31
36
Forecasting ML Benchmarks in 2023
jsteinhardt
5mo
19
24
Annual AGI Benchmarking Event
Lawrence Phillips
3mo
3
184
Birds, Brains, Planes, and AI: Against Appeals to the Complexity/Mysteriousness/Efficiency of the Brain
Daniel Kokotajlo
1y
85
85
More Christiano, Cotra, and Yudkowsky on AI progress
Eliezer Yudkowsky
1y
30
68
Risks from AI persuasion
Beth Barnes
12mo
15
54
Forecasting progress in language models
Matthew Barnett
1y
5
145
Cortés, Pizarro, and Afonso as Precedents for Takeover
Daniel Kokotajlo
2y
75
74
Persuasion Tools: AI takeover without AGI or agency?
Daniel Kokotajlo
2y
24