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19 posts
AI Timelines
Crucial Considerations
20 posts
Forecasting & Prediction
Technological Forecasting
History
AI Persuasion
Dialogue (format)
Transformative AI
Organization Updates
Efficient Market Hypothesis
Forecasts (Specific Predictions)
Progress Studies
Double-Crux
60
Disagreement with bio anchors that lead to shorter timelines
Marius Hobbhahn
1mo
16
259
Two-year update on my personal AI timelines
Ajeya Cotra
4mo
60
104
How might we align transformative AI if it’s developed very soon?
HoldenKarnofsky
3mo
17
122
Deepmind's Gato: Generalist Agent
Daniel Kokotajlo
7mo
61
51
AGI Timelines Are Mostly Not Strategically Relevant To Alignment
johnswentworth
3mo
35
28
A review of the Bio-Anchors report
jylin04
2mo
4
158
Comments on Carlsmith's “Is power-seeking AI an existential risk?”
So8res
1y
13
105
Shulman and Yudkowsky on AI progress
Eliezer Yudkowsky
1y
16
71
A comment on Ajeya Cotra's draft report on AI timelines
Matthew Barnett
9mo
13
214
Are we in an AI overhang?
Andy Jones
2y
109
148
Fun with +12 OOMs of Compute
Daniel Kokotajlo
1y
78
156
Draft report on AI timelines
Ajeya Cotra
2y
56
123
Forecasting Thread: AI Timelines
Amandango
2y
95
69
Fractional progress estimates for AI timelines and implied resource requirements
Mark Xu
1y
6
74
AI strategy nearcasting
HoldenKarnofsky
3mo
3
80
Announcing Epoch: A research organization investigating the road to Transformative AI
Jsevillamol
5mo
2
191
Biology-Inspired AGI Timelines: The Trick That Never Works
Eliezer Yudkowsky
1y
143
252
What 2026 looks like
Daniel Kokotajlo
1y
98
137
Christiano, Cotra, and Yudkowsky on AI progress
Eliezer Yudkowsky
1y
95
130
Conversation on technology forecasting and gradualism
Richard_Ngo
1y
31
93
More Christiano, Cotra, and Yudkowsky on AI progress
Eliezer Yudkowsky
1y
30
170
Birds, Brains, Planes, and AI: Against Appeals to the Complexity/Mysteriousness/Efficiency of the Brain
Daniel Kokotajlo
1y
85
25
Forecasting ML Benchmarks in 2023
jsteinhardt
5mo
19
64
Risks from AI persuasion
Beth Barnes
12mo
15
15
Annual AGI Benchmarking Event
Lawrence Phillips
3mo
3
59
Forecasting progress in language models
Matthew Barnett
1y
5
155
Cortés, Pizarro, and Afonso as Precedents for Takeover
Daniel Kokotajlo
2y
75
73
Security Mindset and Takeoff Speeds
DanielFilan
2y
23