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19 posts
AI Timelines
Crucial Considerations
20 posts
Forecasting & Prediction
Technological Forecasting
History
AI Persuasion
Dialogue (format)
Transformative AI
Organization Updates
Efficient Market Hypothesis
Forecasts (Specific Predictions)
Progress Studies
Double-Crux
259
Two-year update on my personal AI timelines
Ajeya Cotra
4mo
60
104
How might we align transformative AI if it’s developed very soon?
HoldenKarnofsky
3mo
17
60
Disagreement with bio anchors that lead to shorter timelines
Marius Hobbhahn
1mo
16
51
AGI Timelines Are Mostly Not Strategically Relevant To Alignment
johnswentworth
3mo
35
28
A review of the Bio-Anchors report
jylin04
2mo
4
10
What's a good probability distribution family (e.g. "log-normal") to use for AGI timelines?
David Scott Krueger (formerly: capybaralet)
8mo
12
123
Forecasting Thread: AI Timelines
Amandango
2y
95
122
Deepmind's Gato: Generalist Agent
Daniel Kokotajlo
7mo
61
156
Draft report on AI timelines
Ajeya Cotra
2y
56
214
Are we in an AI overhang?
Andy Jones
2y
109
158
Comments on Carlsmith's “Is power-seeking AI an existential risk?”
So8res
1y
13
69
Fractional progress estimates for AI timelines and implied resource requirements
Mark Xu
1y
6
91
Extrapolating GPT-N performance
Lanrian
2y
31
36
What happens to variance as neural network training is scaled? What does it imply about "lottery tickets"?
abramdemski
2y
4
252
What 2026 looks like
Daniel Kokotajlo
1y
98
170
Birds, Brains, Planes, and AI: Against Appeals to the Complexity/Mysteriousness/Efficiency of the Brain
Daniel Kokotajlo
1y
85
74
AI strategy nearcasting
HoldenKarnofsky
3mo
3
80
Announcing Epoch: A research organization investigating the road to Transformative AI
Jsevillamol
5mo
2
21
What are the best precedents for industries failing to invest in valuable AI research?
Daniel Kokotajlo
2y
17
64
Risks from AI persuasion
Beth Barnes
12mo
15
137
Christiano, Cotra, and Yudkowsky on AI progress
Eliezer Yudkowsky
1y
95
73
Security Mindset and Takeoff Speeds
DanielFilan
2y
23
42
Forecasting AI Progress: A Research Agenda
rossg
2y
4
39
For the past, in some ways only, we are moral degenerates
Stuart_Armstrong
3y
17
25
Forecasting ML Benchmarks in 2023
jsteinhardt
5mo
19
191
Biology-Inspired AGI Timelines: The Trick That Never Works
Eliezer Yudkowsky
1y
143
29
[AN #121]: Forecasting transformative AI timelines using biological anchors
Rohin Shah
2y
5
93
More Christiano, Cotra, and Yudkowsky on AI progress
Eliezer Yudkowsky
1y
30