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19 posts
AI Timelines
Crucial Considerations
20 posts
Forecasting & Prediction
Technological Forecasting
History
AI Persuasion
Dialogue (format)
Transformative AI
Organization Updates
Efficient Market Hypothesis
Forecasts (Specific Predictions)
Progress Studies
Double-Crux
315
Two-year update on my personal AI timelines
Ajeya Cotra
4mo
60
110
How might we align transformative AI if it’s developed very soon?
HoldenKarnofsky
3mo
17
84
Disagreement with bio anchors that lead to shorter timelines
Marius Hobbhahn
1mo
16
37
AGI Timelines Are Mostly Not Strategically Relevant To Alignment
johnswentworth
3mo
35
62
A review of the Bio-Anchors report
jylin04
2mo
4
8
What's a good probability distribution family (e.g. "log-normal") to use for AGI timelines?
David Scott Krueger (formerly: capybaralet)
8mo
12
143
Forecasting Thread: AI Timelines
Amandango
2y
95
206
Deepmind's Gato: Generalist Agent
Daniel Kokotajlo
7mo
61
258
Draft report on AI timelines
Ajeya Cotra
2y
56
296
Are we in an AI overhang?
Andy Jones
2y
109
116
Comments on Carlsmith's “Is power-seeking AI an existential risk?”
So8res
1y
13
41
Fractional progress estimates for AI timelines and implied resource requirements
Mark Xu
1y
6
115
Extrapolating GPT-N performance
Lanrian
2y
31
14
What happens to variance as neural network training is scaled? What does it imply about "lottery tickets"?
abramdemski
2y
4
486
What 2026 looks like
Daniel Kokotajlo
1y
98
198
Birds, Brains, Planes, and AI: Against Appeals to the Complexity/Mysteriousness/Efficiency of the Brain
Daniel Kokotajlo
1y
85
84
AI strategy nearcasting
HoldenKarnofsky
3mo
3
110
Announcing Epoch: A research organization investigating the road to Transformative AI
Jsevillamol
5mo
2
15
What are the best precedents for industries failing to invest in valuable AI research?
Daniel Kokotajlo
2y
17
72
Risks from AI persuasion
Beth Barnes
12mo
15
97
Christiano, Cotra, and Yudkowsky on AI progress
Eliezer Yudkowsky
1y
95
35
Security Mindset and Takeoff Speeds
DanielFilan
2y
23
36
Forecasting AI Progress: A Research Agenda
rossg
2y
4
25
For the past, in some ways only, we are moral degenerates
Stuart_Armstrong
3y
17
47
Forecasting ML Benchmarks in 2023
jsteinhardt
5mo
19
171
Biology-Inspired AGI Timelines: The Trick That Never Works
Eliezer Yudkowsky
1y
143
25
[AN #121]: Forecasting transformative AI timelines using biological anchors
Rohin Shah
2y
5
77
More Christiano, Cotra, and Yudkowsky on AI progress
Eliezer Yudkowsky
1y
30