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19 posts
AI Timelines
Crucial Considerations
0 posts
315
Two-year update on my personal AI timelines
Ajeya Cotra
4mo
60
110
How might we align transformative AI if it’s developed very soon?
HoldenKarnofsky
3mo
17
84
Disagreement with bio anchors that lead to shorter timelines
Marius Hobbhahn
1mo
16
37
AGI Timelines Are Mostly Not Strategically Relevant To Alignment
johnswentworth
3mo
35
62
A review of the Bio-Anchors report
jylin04
2mo
4
8
What's a good probability distribution family (e.g. "log-normal") to use for AGI timelines?
David Scott Krueger (formerly: capybaralet)
8mo
12
143
Forecasting Thread: AI Timelines
Amandango
2y
95
206
Deepmind's Gato: Generalist Agent
Daniel Kokotajlo
7mo
61
258
Draft report on AI timelines
Ajeya Cotra
2y
56
296
Are we in an AI overhang?
Andy Jones
2y
109
116
Comments on Carlsmith's “Is power-seeking AI an existential risk?”
So8res
1y
13
41
Fractional progress estimates for AI timelines and implied resource requirements
Mark Xu
1y
6
115
Extrapolating GPT-N performance
Lanrian
2y
31
14
What happens to variance as neural network training is scaled? What does it imply about "lottery tickets"?
abramdemski
2y
4