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19 posts
AI Timelines
Crucial Considerations
0 posts
259
Two-year update on my personal AI timelines
Ajeya Cotra
4mo
60
104
How might we align transformative AI if it’s developed very soon?
HoldenKarnofsky
3mo
17
60
Disagreement with bio anchors that lead to shorter timelines
Marius Hobbhahn
1mo
16
51
AGI Timelines Are Mostly Not Strategically Relevant To Alignment
johnswentworth
3mo
35
28
A review of the Bio-Anchors report
jylin04
2mo
4
10
What's a good probability distribution family (e.g. "log-normal") to use for AGI timelines?
David Scott Krueger (formerly: capybaralet)
8mo
12
123
Forecasting Thread: AI Timelines
Amandango
2y
95
122
Deepmind's Gato: Generalist Agent
Daniel Kokotajlo
7mo
61
156
Draft report on AI timelines
Ajeya Cotra
2y
56
214
Are we in an AI overhang?
Andy Jones
2y
109
158
Comments on Carlsmith's “Is power-seeking AI an existential risk?”
So8res
1y
13
69
Fractional progress estimates for AI timelines and implied resource requirements
Mark Xu
1y
6
91
Extrapolating GPT-N performance
Lanrian
2y
31
36
What happens to variance as neural network training is scaled? What does it imply about "lottery tickets"?
abramdemski
2y
4