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19 posts
AI Timelines
Crucial Considerations
0 posts
259
Two-year update on my personal AI timelines
Ajeya Cotra
4mo
60
214
Are we in an AI overhang?
Andy Jones
2y
109
158
Comments on Carlsmith's “Is power-seeking AI an existential risk?”
So8res
1y
13
156
Draft report on AI timelines
Ajeya Cotra
2y
56
148
Fun with +12 OOMs of Compute
Daniel Kokotajlo
1y
78
123
Forecasting Thread: AI Timelines
Amandango
2y
95
122
Deepmind's Gato: Generalist Agent
Daniel Kokotajlo
7mo
61
105
Shulman and Yudkowsky on AI progress
Eliezer Yudkowsky
1y
16
104
How might we align transformative AI if it’s developed very soon?
HoldenKarnofsky
3mo
17
91
Extrapolating GPT-N performance
Lanrian
2y
31
82
My current framework for thinking about AGI timelines
zhukeepa
2y
5
71
A comment on Ajeya Cotra's draft report on AI timelines
Matthew Barnett
9mo
13
69
Fractional progress estimates for AI timelines and implied resource requirements
Mark Xu
1y
6
60
Disagreement with bio anchors that lead to shorter timelines
Marius Hobbhahn
1mo
16