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19 posts
AI Timelines
Crucial Considerations
20 posts
Forecasting & Prediction
Technological Forecasting
History
AI Persuasion
Dialogue (format)
Transformative AI
Organization Updates
Efficient Market Hypothesis
Forecasts (Specific Predictions)
Progress Studies
Double-Crux
259
Two-year update on my personal AI timelines
Ajeya Cotra
4mo
60
214
Are we in an AI overhang?
Andy Jones
2y
109
158
Comments on Carlsmith's “Is power-seeking AI an existential risk?”
So8res
1y
13
156
Draft report on AI timelines
Ajeya Cotra
2y
56
148
Fun with +12 OOMs of Compute
Daniel Kokotajlo
1y
78
123
Forecasting Thread: AI Timelines
Amandango
2y
95
122
Deepmind's Gato: Generalist Agent
Daniel Kokotajlo
7mo
61
105
Shulman and Yudkowsky on AI progress
Eliezer Yudkowsky
1y
16
104
How might we align transformative AI if it’s developed very soon?
HoldenKarnofsky
3mo
17
91
Extrapolating GPT-N performance
Lanrian
2y
31
82
My current framework for thinking about AGI timelines
zhukeepa
2y
5
71
A comment on Ajeya Cotra's draft report on AI timelines
Matthew Barnett
9mo
13
69
Fractional progress estimates for AI timelines and implied resource requirements
Mark Xu
1y
6
60
Disagreement with bio anchors that lead to shorter timelines
Marius Hobbhahn
1mo
16
252
What 2026 looks like
Daniel Kokotajlo
1y
98
191
Biology-Inspired AGI Timelines: The Trick That Never Works
Eliezer Yudkowsky
1y
143
170
Birds, Brains, Planes, and AI: Against Appeals to the Complexity/Mysteriousness/Efficiency of the Brain
Daniel Kokotajlo
1y
85
155
Cortés, Pizarro, and Afonso as Precedents for Takeover
Daniel Kokotajlo
2y
75
137
Christiano, Cotra, and Yudkowsky on AI progress
Eliezer Yudkowsky
1y
95
130
Conversation on technology forecasting and gradualism
Richard_Ngo
1y
31
93
More Christiano, Cotra, and Yudkowsky on AI progress
Eliezer Yudkowsky
1y
30
80
Announcing Epoch: A research organization investigating the road to Transformative AI
Jsevillamol
5mo
2
74
AI strategy nearcasting
HoldenKarnofsky
3mo
3
73
Security Mindset and Takeoff Speeds
DanielFilan
2y
23
66
Persuasion Tools: AI takeover without AGI or agency?
Daniel Kokotajlo
2y
24
64
Risks from AI persuasion
Beth Barnes
12mo
15
59
Forecasting progress in language models
Matthew Barnett
1y
5
42
Forecasting AI Progress: A Research Agenda
rossg
2y
4