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39 posts
AI Timelines
Forecasting & Prediction
Technological Forecasting
History
Dialogue (format)
AI Persuasion
Forecasts (Specific Predictions)
Progress Studies
Organization Updates
Transformative AI
Efficient Market Hypothesis
Crucial Considerations
41 posts
AI Takeoff
AI Governance
Recursive Self-Improvement
Industrial Revolution
Law and Legal systems
Effective Altruism
Modest Epistemology
Air Conditioning
259
Two-year update on my personal AI timelines
Ajeya Cotra
4mo
60
252
What 2026 looks like
Daniel Kokotajlo
1y
98
214
Are we in an AI overhang?
Andy Jones
2y
109
191
Biology-Inspired AGI Timelines: The Trick That Never Works
Eliezer Yudkowsky
1y
143
170
Birds, Brains, Planes, and AI: Against Appeals to the Complexity/Mysteriousness/Efficiency of the Brain
Daniel Kokotajlo
1y
85
158
Comments on Carlsmith's “Is power-seeking AI an existential risk?”
So8res
1y
13
156
Draft report on AI timelines
Ajeya Cotra
2y
56
155
Cortés, Pizarro, and Afonso as Precedents for Takeover
Daniel Kokotajlo
2y
75
148
Fun with +12 OOMs of Compute
Daniel Kokotajlo
1y
78
137
Christiano, Cotra, and Yudkowsky on AI progress
Eliezer Yudkowsky
1y
95
130
Conversation on technology forecasting and gradualism
Richard_Ngo
1y
31
123
Forecasting Thread: AI Timelines
Amandango
2y
95
122
Deepmind's Gato: Generalist Agent
Daniel Kokotajlo
7mo
61
105
Shulman and Yudkowsky on AI progress
Eliezer Yudkowsky
1y
16
185
Yudkowsky and Christiano discuss "Takeoff Speeds"
Eliezer Yudkowsky
1y
181
180
Everything I Need To Know About Takeoff Speeds I Learned From Air Conditioner Ratings On Amazon
johnswentworth
8mo
130
139
Against GDP as a metric for timelines and takeoff speeds
Daniel Kokotajlo
1y
16
139
Ngo and Yudkowsky on AI capability gains
Eliezer Yudkowsky
1y
61
130
Disentangling arguments for the importance of AI safety
Richard_Ngo
3y
23
124
Takeoff speeds have a huge effect on what it means to work on AI x-risk
Buck
8mo
25
122
Soft takeoff can still lead to decisive strategic advantage
Daniel Kokotajlo
3y
46
100
What does it take to defend the world against out-of-control AGIs?
Steven Byrnes
1mo
31
94
Review of Soft Takeoff Can Still Lead to DSA
Daniel Kokotajlo
1y
15
92
The date of AI Takeover is not the day the AI takes over
Daniel Kokotajlo
2y
32
83
Arguments about fast takeoff
paulfchristiano
4y
64
81
Misconceptions about continuous takeoff
Matthew Barnett
3y
38
78
Continuing the takeoffs debate
Richard_Ngo
2y
13
76
Ngo's view on alignment difficulty
Richard_Ngo
1y
7