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934 posts
AI
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Eliciting Latent Knowledge (ELK)
Reinforcement Learning
Infra-Bayesianism
Counterfactuals
Logic & Mathematics
Interviews
AI Capabilities
Inverse Reinforcement Learning
80 posts
AI Timelines
AI Takeoff
AI Persuasion
History
Forecasting & Prediction
Dialogue (format)
Technological Forecasting
Forecasts (Specific Predictions)
Industrial Revolution
Effective Altruism
Transformative AI
Progress Studies
259
Humans are very reliable agents
alyssavance
6mo
35
242
Visible Thoughts Project and Bounty Announcement
So8res
1y
104
241
Discussion with Eliezer Yudkowsky on AGI interventions
Rob Bensinger
1y
257
233
Reward is not the optimization target
TurnTrout
4mo
97
231
DeepMind: Generally capable agents emerge from open-ended play
Daniel Kokotajlo
1y
53
219
ARC's first technical report: Eliciting Latent Knowledge
paulfchristiano
1y
88
217
larger language models may disappoint you [or, an eternally unfinished draft]
nostalgebraist
1y
29
213
AI alignment is distinct from its near-term applications
paulfchristiano
7d
5
213
Hiring engineers and researchers to help align GPT-3
paulfchristiano
2y
14
212
EfficientZero: How It Works
1a3orn
1y
42
211
Safetywashing
Adam Scholl
5mo
17
205
The Plan
johnswentworth
1y
77
205
Ngo and Yudkowsky on alignment difficulty
Eliezer Yudkowsky
1y
143
202
Attempted Gears Analysis of AGI Intervention Discussion With Eliezer
Zvi
1y
48
259
Two-year update on my personal AI timelines
Ajeya Cotra
4mo
60
252
What 2026 looks like
Daniel Kokotajlo
1y
98
214
Are we in an AI overhang?
Andy Jones
2y
109
191
Biology-Inspired AGI Timelines: The Trick That Never Works
Eliezer Yudkowsky
1y
143
185
Yudkowsky and Christiano discuss "Takeoff Speeds"
Eliezer Yudkowsky
1y
181
180
Everything I Need To Know About Takeoff Speeds I Learned From Air Conditioner Ratings On Amazon
johnswentworth
8mo
130
170
Birds, Brains, Planes, and AI: Against Appeals to the Complexity/Mysteriousness/Efficiency of the Brain
Daniel Kokotajlo
1y
85
158
Comments on Carlsmith's “Is power-seeking AI an existential risk?”
So8res
1y
13
156
Draft report on AI timelines
Ajeya Cotra
2y
56
155
Cortés, Pizarro, and Afonso as Precedents for Takeover
Daniel Kokotajlo
2y
75
148
Fun with +12 OOMs of Compute
Daniel Kokotajlo
1y
78
139
Against GDP as a metric for timelines and takeoff speeds
Daniel Kokotajlo
1y
16
139
Ngo and Yudkowsky on AI capability gains
Eliezer Yudkowsky
1y
61
137
Christiano, Cotra, and Yudkowsky on AI progress
Eliezer Yudkowsky
1y
95