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39 posts
AI Timelines
Forecasting & Prediction
Technological Forecasting
History
Dialogue (format)
AI Persuasion
Forecasts (Specific Predictions)
Progress Studies
Organization Updates
Transformative AI
Efficient Market Hypothesis
Crucial Considerations
41 posts
AI Takeoff
AI Governance
Recursive Self-Improvement
Industrial Revolution
Law and Legal systems
Effective Altruism
Modest Epistemology
Air Conditioning
60
Disagreement with bio anchors that lead to shorter timelines
Marius Hobbhahn
1mo
16
259
Two-year update on my personal AI timelines
Ajeya Cotra
4mo
60
104
How might we align transformative AI if it’s developed very soon?
HoldenKarnofsky
3mo
17
74
AI strategy nearcasting
HoldenKarnofsky
3mo
3
122
Deepmind's Gato: Generalist Agent
Daniel Kokotajlo
7mo
61
51
AGI Timelines Are Mostly Not Strategically Relevant To Alignment
johnswentworth
3mo
35
80
Announcing Epoch: A research organization investigating the road to Transformative AI
Jsevillamol
5mo
2
191
Biology-Inspired AGI Timelines: The Trick That Never Works
Eliezer Yudkowsky
1y
143
252
What 2026 looks like
Daniel Kokotajlo
1y
98
28
A review of the Bio-Anchors report
jylin04
2mo
4
158
Comments on Carlsmith's “Is power-seeking AI an existential risk?”
So8res
1y
13
137
Christiano, Cotra, and Yudkowsky on AI progress
Eliezer Yudkowsky
1y
95
130
Conversation on technology forecasting and gradualism
Richard_Ngo
1y
31
105
Shulman and Yudkowsky on AI progress
Eliezer Yudkowsky
1y
16
100
What does it take to defend the world against out-of-control AGIs?
Steven Byrnes
1mo
31
70
Applying superintelligence without collusion
Eric Drexler
1mo
56
23
The economy as an analogy for advanced AI systems
rosehadshar
1mo
0
54
my current outlook on AI risk mitigation
carado
2mo
4
5
How promising are legal avenues to restrict AI training data?
thehalliard
10d
2
180
Everything I Need To Know About Takeoff Speeds I Learned From Air Conditioner Ratings On Amazon
johnswentworth
8mo
130
52
Replacement for PONR concept
Daniel Kokotajlo
3mo
6
124
Takeoff speeds have a huge effect on what it means to work on AI x-risk
Buck
8mo
25
185
Yudkowsky and Christiano discuss "Takeoff Speeds"
Eliezer Yudkowsky
1y
181
139
Ngo and Yudkowsky on AI capability gains
Eliezer Yudkowsky
1y
61
76
Ngo's view on alignment difficulty
Richard_Ngo
1y
7
65
My Overview of the AI Alignment Landscape: A Bird's Eye View
Neel Nanda
1y
9
139
Against GDP as a metric for timelines and takeoff speeds
Daniel Kokotajlo
1y
16
23
Why you might expect homogeneous take-off: evidence from ML research
Andrei Alexandru
5mo
0