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39 posts
AI Timelines
Forecasting & Prediction
Technological Forecasting
History
Dialogue (format)
AI Persuasion
Forecasts (Specific Predictions)
Progress Studies
Organization Updates
Transformative AI
Efficient Market Hypothesis
Crucial Considerations
41 posts
AI Takeoff
AI Governance
Recursive Self-Improvement
Industrial Revolution
Law and Legal systems
Effective Altruism
Modest Epistemology
Air Conditioning
84
Disagreement with bio anchors that lead to shorter timelines
Marius Hobbhahn
1mo
16
315
Two-year update on my personal AI timelines
Ajeya Cotra
4mo
60
110
How might we align transformative AI if it’s developed very soon?
HoldenKarnofsky
3mo
17
206
Deepmind's Gato: Generalist Agent
Daniel Kokotajlo
7mo
61
62
A review of the Bio-Anchors report
jylin04
2mo
4
486
What 2026 looks like
Daniel Kokotajlo
1y
98
84
AI strategy nearcasting
HoldenKarnofsky
3mo
3
110
Announcing Epoch: A research organization investigating the road to Transformative AI
Jsevillamol
5mo
2
171
Biology-Inspired AGI Timelines: The Trick That Never Works
Eliezer Yudkowsky
1y
143
276
Fun with +12 OOMs of Compute
Daniel Kokotajlo
1y
78
37
AGI Timelines Are Mostly Not Strategically Relevant To Alignment
johnswentworth
3mo
35
47
Forecasting ML Benchmarks in 2023
jsteinhardt
5mo
19
33
Annual AGI Benchmarking Event
Lawrence Phillips
3mo
3
58
Grokking “Forecasting TAI with biological anchors”
anson.ho
6mo
0
182
What does it take to defend the world against out-of-control AGIs?
Steven Byrnes
1mo
31
104
Applying superintelligence without collusion
Eric Drexler
1mo
56
13
How promising are legal avenues to restrict AI training data?
thehalliard
10d
2
29
The economy as an analogy for advanced AI systems
rosehadshar
1mo
0
62
my current outlook on AI risk mitigation
carado
2mo
4
118
Everything I Need To Know About Takeoff Speeds I Learned From Air Conditioner Ratings On Amazon
johnswentworth
8mo
130
197
Yudkowsky and Christiano discuss "Takeoff Speeds"
Eliezer Yudkowsky
1y
181
110
Takeoff speeds have a huge effect on what it means to work on AI x-risk
Buck
8mo
25
157
My Overview of the AI Alignment Landscape: A Bird's Eye View
Neel Nanda
1y
9
36
Replacement for PONR concept
Daniel Kokotajlo
3mo
6
119
Ngo and Yudkowsky on AI capability gains
Eliezer Yudkowsky
1y
61
36
Continuity Assumptions
Jan_Kulveit
6mo
13
31
What success looks like
Marius Hobbhahn
5mo
4
25
Why you might expect homogeneous take-off: evidence from ML research
Andrei Alexandru
5mo
0