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19 posts
AI Timelines
Crucial Considerations
20 posts
Forecasting & Prediction
Technological Forecasting
History
AI Persuasion
Dialogue (format)
Transformative AI
Organization Updates
Efficient Market Hypothesis
Forecasts (Specific Predictions)
Progress Studies
Double-Crux
84
Disagreement with bio anchors that lead to shorter timelines
Marius Hobbhahn
1mo
16
315
Two-year update on my personal AI timelines
Ajeya Cotra
4mo
60
110
How might we align transformative AI if it’s developed very soon?
HoldenKarnofsky
3mo
17
206
Deepmind's Gato: Generalist Agent
Daniel Kokotajlo
7mo
61
62
A review of the Bio-Anchors report
jylin04
2mo
4
276
Fun with +12 OOMs of Compute
Daniel Kokotajlo
1y
78
37
AGI Timelines Are Mostly Not Strategically Relevant To Alignment
johnswentworth
3mo
35
58
Grokking “Forecasting TAI with biological anchors”
anson.ho
6mo
0
296
Are we in an AI overhang?
Andy Jones
2y
109
116
Comments on Carlsmith's “Is power-seeking AI an existential risk?”
So8res
1y
13
258
Draft report on AI timelines
Ajeya Cotra
2y
56
67
A comment on Ajeya Cotra's draft report on AI timelines
Matthew Barnett
9mo
13
75
Shulman and Yudkowsky on AI progress
Eliezer Yudkowsky
1y
16
143
Forecasting Thread: AI Timelines
Amandango
2y
95
486
What 2026 looks like
Daniel Kokotajlo
1y
98
84
AI strategy nearcasting
HoldenKarnofsky
3mo
3
110
Announcing Epoch: A research organization investigating the road to Transformative AI
Jsevillamol
5mo
2
171
Biology-Inspired AGI Timelines: The Trick That Never Works
Eliezer Yudkowsky
1y
143
47
Forecasting ML Benchmarks in 2023
jsteinhardt
5mo
19
33
Annual AGI Benchmarking Event
Lawrence Phillips
3mo
3
198
Birds, Brains, Planes, and AI: Against Appeals to the Complexity/Mysteriousness/Efficiency of the Brain
Daniel Kokotajlo
1y
85
97
Christiano, Cotra, and Yudkowsky on AI progress
Eliezer Yudkowsky
1y
95
84
Conversation on technology forecasting and gradualism
Richard_Ngo
1y
31
77
More Christiano, Cotra, and Yudkowsky on AI progress
Eliezer Yudkowsky
1y
30
72
Risks from AI persuasion
Beth Barnes
12mo
15
49
Forecasting progress in language models
Matthew Barnett
1y
5
135
Cortés, Pizarro, and Afonso as Precedents for Takeover
Daniel Kokotajlo
2y
75
82
Persuasion Tools: AI takeover without AGI or agency?
Daniel Kokotajlo
2y
24