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19 posts
AI Timelines
Crucial Considerations
20 posts
Forecasting & Prediction
Technological Forecasting
History
AI Persuasion
Dialogue (format)
Transformative AI
Organization Updates
Efficient Market Hypothesis
Forecasts (Specific Predictions)
Progress Studies
Double-Crux
315
Two-year update on my personal AI timelines
Ajeya Cotra
4mo
60
296
Are we in an AI overhang?
Andy Jones
2y
109
276
Fun with +12 OOMs of Compute
Daniel Kokotajlo
1y
78
258
Draft report on AI timelines
Ajeya Cotra
2y
56
206
Deepmind's Gato: Generalist Agent
Daniel Kokotajlo
7mo
61
143
Forecasting Thread: AI Timelines
Amandango
2y
95
132
My current framework for thinking about AGI timelines
zhukeepa
2y
5
116
Comments on Carlsmith's “Is power-seeking AI an existential risk?”
So8res
1y
13
115
Extrapolating GPT-N performance
Lanrian
2y
31
110
How might we align transformative AI if it’s developed very soon?
HoldenKarnofsky
3mo
17
84
Disagreement with bio anchors that lead to shorter timelines
Marius Hobbhahn
1mo
16
75
Shulman and Yudkowsky on AI progress
Eliezer Yudkowsky
1y
16
67
A comment on Ajeya Cotra's draft report on AI timelines
Matthew Barnett
9mo
13
62
A review of the Bio-Anchors report
jylin04
2mo
4
486
What 2026 looks like
Daniel Kokotajlo
1y
98
198
Birds, Brains, Planes, and AI: Against Appeals to the Complexity/Mysteriousness/Efficiency of the Brain
Daniel Kokotajlo
1y
85
171
Biology-Inspired AGI Timelines: The Trick That Never Works
Eliezer Yudkowsky
1y
143
135
Cortés, Pizarro, and Afonso as Precedents for Takeover
Daniel Kokotajlo
2y
75
110
Announcing Epoch: A research organization investigating the road to Transformative AI
Jsevillamol
5mo
2
97
Christiano, Cotra, and Yudkowsky on AI progress
Eliezer Yudkowsky
1y
95
84
AI strategy nearcasting
HoldenKarnofsky
3mo
3
84
Conversation on technology forecasting and gradualism
Richard_Ngo
1y
31
82
Persuasion Tools: AI takeover without AGI or agency?
Daniel Kokotajlo
2y
24
77
More Christiano, Cotra, and Yudkowsky on AI progress
Eliezer Yudkowsky
1y
30
72
Risks from AI persuasion
Beth Barnes
12mo
15
49
Forecasting progress in language models
Matthew Barnett
1y
5
47
Forecasting ML Benchmarks in 2023
jsteinhardt
5mo
19
36
Forecasting AI Progress: A Research Agenda
rossg
2y
4