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19 posts
AI Timelines
Crucial Considerations
20 posts
Forecasting & Prediction
Technological Forecasting
History
AI Persuasion
Dialogue (format)
Transformative AI
Organization Updates
Efficient Market Hypothesis
Forecasts (Specific Predictions)
Progress Studies
Double-Crux
287
Two-year update on my personal AI timelines
Ajeya Cotra
4mo
60
255
Are we in an AI overhang?
Andy Jones
2y
109
212
Fun with +12 OOMs of Compute
Daniel Kokotajlo
1y
78
207
Draft report on AI timelines
Ajeya Cotra
2y
56
164
Deepmind's Gato: Generalist Agent
Daniel Kokotajlo
7mo
61
137
Comments on Carlsmith's “Is power-seeking AI an existential risk?”
So8res
1y
13
133
Forecasting Thread: AI Timelines
Amandango
2y
95
107
How might we align transformative AI if it’s developed very soon?
HoldenKarnofsky
3mo
17
107
My current framework for thinking about AGI timelines
zhukeepa
2y
5
103
Extrapolating GPT-N performance
Lanrian
2y
31
90
Shulman and Yudkowsky on AI progress
Eliezer Yudkowsky
1y
16
72
Disagreement with bio anchors that lead to shorter timelines
Marius Hobbhahn
1mo
16
69
A comment on Ajeya Cotra's draft report on AI timelines
Matthew Barnett
9mo
13
55
Fractional progress estimates for AI timelines and implied resource requirements
Mark Xu
1y
6
369
What 2026 looks like
Daniel Kokotajlo
1y
98
184
Birds, Brains, Planes, and AI: Against Appeals to the Complexity/Mysteriousness/Efficiency of the Brain
Daniel Kokotajlo
1y
85
181
Biology-Inspired AGI Timelines: The Trick That Never Works
Eliezer Yudkowsky
1y
143
145
Cortés, Pizarro, and Afonso as Precedents for Takeover
Daniel Kokotajlo
2y
75
117
Christiano, Cotra, and Yudkowsky on AI progress
Eliezer Yudkowsky
1y
95
107
Conversation on technology forecasting and gradualism
Richard_Ngo
1y
31
95
Announcing Epoch: A research organization investigating the road to Transformative AI
Jsevillamol
5mo
2
85
More Christiano, Cotra, and Yudkowsky on AI progress
Eliezer Yudkowsky
1y
30
79
AI strategy nearcasting
HoldenKarnofsky
3mo
3
74
Persuasion Tools: AI takeover without AGI or agency?
Daniel Kokotajlo
2y
24
68
Risks from AI persuasion
Beth Barnes
12mo
15
54
Security Mindset and Takeoff Speeds
DanielFilan
2y
23
54
Forecasting progress in language models
Matthew Barnett
1y
5
39
Forecasting AI Progress: A Research Agenda
rossg
2y
4