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19 posts
AI Timelines
Crucial Considerations
0 posts
287
Two-year update on my personal AI timelines
Ajeya Cotra
4mo
60
255
Are we in an AI overhang?
Andy Jones
2y
109
212
Fun with +12 OOMs of Compute
Daniel Kokotajlo
1y
78
207
Draft report on AI timelines
Ajeya Cotra
2y
56
164
Deepmind's Gato: Generalist Agent
Daniel Kokotajlo
7mo
61
137
Comments on Carlsmith's “Is power-seeking AI an existential risk?”
So8res
1y
13
133
Forecasting Thread: AI Timelines
Amandango
2y
95
107
How might we align transformative AI if it’s developed very soon?
HoldenKarnofsky
3mo
17
107
My current framework for thinking about AGI timelines
zhukeepa
2y
5
103
Extrapolating GPT-N performance
Lanrian
2y
31
90
Shulman and Yudkowsky on AI progress
Eliezer Yudkowsky
1y
16
72
Disagreement with bio anchors that lead to shorter timelines
Marius Hobbhahn
1mo
16
69
A comment on Ajeya Cotra's draft report on AI timelines
Matthew Barnett
9mo
13
55
Fractional progress estimates for AI timelines and implied resource requirements
Mark Xu
1y
6