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39 posts
AI Timelines
Forecasting & Prediction
Technological Forecasting
History
Dialogue (format)
AI Persuasion
Forecasts (Specific Predictions)
Progress Studies
Organization Updates
Transformative AI
Efficient Market Hypothesis
Crucial Considerations
41 posts
AI Takeoff
AI Governance
Recursive Self-Improvement
Industrial Revolution
Law and Legal systems
Effective Altruism
Modest Epistemology
Air Conditioning
486
What 2026 looks like
Daniel Kokotajlo
1y
98
315
Two-year update on my personal AI timelines
Ajeya Cotra
4mo
60
296
Are we in an AI overhang?
Andy Jones
2y
109
276
Fun with +12 OOMs of Compute
Daniel Kokotajlo
1y
78
258
Draft report on AI timelines
Ajeya Cotra
2y
56
206
Deepmind's Gato: Generalist Agent
Daniel Kokotajlo
7mo
61
198
Birds, Brains, Planes, and AI: Against Appeals to the Complexity/Mysteriousness/Efficiency of the Brain
Daniel Kokotajlo
1y
85
171
Biology-Inspired AGI Timelines: The Trick That Never Works
Eliezer Yudkowsky
1y
143
143
Forecasting Thread: AI Timelines
Amandango
2y
95
135
Cortés, Pizarro, and Afonso as Precedents for Takeover
Daniel Kokotajlo
2y
75
132
My current framework for thinking about AGI timelines
zhukeepa
2y
5
116
Comments on Carlsmith's “Is power-seeking AI an existential risk?”
So8res
1y
13
115
Extrapolating GPT-N performance
Lanrian
2y
31
110
Announcing Epoch: A research organization investigating the road to Transformative AI
Jsevillamol
5mo
2
197
Yudkowsky and Christiano discuss "Takeoff Speeds"
Eliezer Yudkowsky
1y
181
182
What does it take to defend the world against out-of-control AGIs?
Steven Byrnes
1mo
31
157
My Overview of the AI Alignment Landscape: A Bird's Eye View
Neel Nanda
1y
9
140
The date of AI Takeover is not the day the AI takes over
Daniel Kokotajlo
2y
32
128
Disentangling arguments for the importance of AI safety
Richard_Ngo
3y
23
123
Against GDP as a metric for timelines and takeoff speeds
Daniel Kokotajlo
1y
16
120
Soft takeoff can still lead to decisive strategic advantage
Daniel Kokotajlo
3y
46
119
Ngo and Yudkowsky on AI capability gains
Eliezer Yudkowsky
1y
61
118
Everything I Need To Know About Takeoff Speeds I Learned From Air Conditioner Ratings On Amazon
johnswentworth
8mo
130
110
Takeoff speeds have a huge effect on what it means to work on AI x-risk
Buck
8mo
25
104
Applying superintelligence without collusion
Eric Drexler
1mo
56
77
Misconceptions about continuous takeoff
Matthew Barnett
3y
38
67
Arguments about fast takeoff
paulfchristiano
4y
64
62
my current outlook on AI risk mitigation
carado
2mo
4