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39 posts
AI Timelines
Forecasting & Prediction
Technological Forecasting
History
Dialogue (format)
AI Persuasion
Forecasts (Specific Predictions)
Progress Studies
Organization Updates
Transformative AI
Efficient Market Hypothesis
Crucial Considerations
41 posts
AI Takeoff
AI Governance
Recursive Self-Improvement
Industrial Revolution
Law and Legal systems
Effective Altruism
Modest Epistemology
Air Conditioning
72
Disagreement with bio anchors that lead to shorter timelines
Marius Hobbhahn
1mo
16
287
Two-year update on my personal AI timelines
Ajeya Cotra
4mo
60
107
How might we align transformative AI if it’s developed very soon?
HoldenKarnofsky
3mo
17
79
AI strategy nearcasting
HoldenKarnofsky
3mo
3
164
Deepmind's Gato: Generalist Agent
Daniel Kokotajlo
7mo
61
45
A review of the Bio-Anchors report
jylin04
2mo
4
369
What 2026 looks like
Daniel Kokotajlo
1y
98
95
Announcing Epoch: A research organization investigating the road to Transformative AI
Jsevillamol
5mo
2
181
Biology-Inspired AGI Timelines: The Trick That Never Works
Eliezer Yudkowsky
1y
143
44
AGI Timelines Are Mostly Not Strategically Relevant To Alignment
johnswentworth
3mo
35
137
Comments on Carlsmith's “Is power-seeking AI an existential risk?”
So8res
1y
13
117
Christiano, Cotra, and Yudkowsky on AI progress
Eliezer Yudkowsky
1y
95
212
Fun with +12 OOMs of Compute
Daniel Kokotajlo
1y
78
107
Conversation on technology forecasting and gradualism
Richard_Ngo
1y
31
141
What does it take to defend the world against out-of-control AGIs?
Steven Byrnes
1mo
31
87
Applying superintelligence without collusion
Eric Drexler
1mo
56
9
How promising are legal avenues to restrict AI training data?
thehalliard
10d
2
26
The economy as an analogy for advanced AI systems
rosehadshar
1mo
0
58
my current outlook on AI risk mitigation
carado
2mo
4
149
Everything I Need To Know About Takeoff Speeds I Learned From Air Conditioner Ratings On Amazon
johnswentworth
8mo
130
117
Takeoff speeds have a huge effect on what it means to work on AI x-risk
Buck
8mo
25
191
Yudkowsky and Christiano discuss "Takeoff Speeds"
Eliezer Yudkowsky
1y
181
44
Replacement for PONR concept
Daniel Kokotajlo
3mo
6
129
Ngo and Yudkowsky on AI capability gains
Eliezer Yudkowsky
1y
61
111
My Overview of the AI Alignment Landscape: A Bird's Eye View
Neel Nanda
1y
9
24
Why you might expect homogeneous take-off: evidence from ML research
Andrei Alexandru
5mo
0
63
Ngo's view on alignment difficulty
Richard_Ngo
1y
7
131
Against GDP as a metric for timelines and takeoff speeds
Daniel Kokotajlo
1y
16