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39 posts
AI Timelines
Forecasting & Prediction
Technological Forecasting
History
Dialogue (format)
AI Persuasion
Forecasts (Specific Predictions)
Progress Studies
Organization Updates
Transformative AI
Efficient Market Hypothesis
Crucial Considerations
41 posts
AI Takeoff
AI Governance
Recursive Self-Improvement
Industrial Revolution
Law and Legal systems
Effective Altruism
Modest Epistemology
Air Conditioning
287
Two-year update on my personal AI timelines
Ajeya Cotra
4mo
60
369
What 2026 looks like
Daniel Kokotajlo
1y
98
107
How might we align transformative AI if it’s developed very soon?
HoldenKarnofsky
3mo
17
184
Birds, Brains, Planes, and AI: Against Appeals to the Complexity/Mysteriousness/Efficiency of the Brain
Daniel Kokotajlo
1y
85
72
Disagreement with bio anchors that lead to shorter timelines
Marius Hobbhahn
1mo
16
44
AGI Timelines Are Mostly Not Strategically Relevant To Alignment
johnswentworth
3mo
35
79
AI strategy nearcasting
HoldenKarnofsky
3mo
3
45
A review of the Bio-Anchors report
jylin04
2mo
4
95
Announcing Epoch: A research organization investigating the road to Transformative AI
Jsevillamol
5mo
2
9
What's a good probability distribution family (e.g. "log-normal") to use for AGI timelines?
David Scott Krueger (formerly: capybaralet)
8mo
12
133
Forecasting Thread: AI Timelines
Amandango
2y
95
164
Deepmind's Gato: Generalist Agent
Daniel Kokotajlo
7mo
61
18
What are the best precedents for industries failing to invest in valuable AI research?
Daniel Kokotajlo
2y
17
68
Risks from AI persuasion
Beth Barnes
12mo
15
87
Applying superintelligence without collusion
Eric Drexler
1mo
56
191
Yudkowsky and Christiano discuss "Takeoff Speeds"
Eliezer Yudkowsky
1y
181
141
What does it take to defend the world against out-of-control AGIs?
Steven Byrnes
1mo
31
9
How promising are legal avenues to restrict AI training data?
thehalliard
10d
2
149
Everything I Need To Know About Takeoff Speeds I Learned From Air Conditioner Ratings On Amazon
johnswentworth
8mo
130
5
Law-Following AI 4: Don't Rely on Vicarious Liability
Cullen_OKeefe
4mo
2
58
my current outlook on AI risk mitigation
carado
2mo
4
44
Replacement for PONR concept
Daniel Kokotajlo
3mo
6
26
Will AI undergo discontinuous progress?
Sammy Martin
2y
21
7
Stable self-improvement as a research problem
paulfchristiano
8y
0
29
Modelling Continuous Progress
Sammy Martin
2y
3
5
Law-Following AI 2: Intent Alignment + Superintelligence → Lawless AI (By Default)
Cullen_OKeefe
7mo
2
75
Arguments about fast takeoff
paulfchristiano
4y
64
29
For every choice of AGI difficulty, conditioning on gradual take-off implies shorter timelines.
Francis Rhys Ward
8mo
13