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15 posts
Forecasting & Prediction
AI Persuasion
Technological Forecasting
Forecasts (Specific Predictions)
Transformative AI
Progress Studies
Organization Updates
Double-Crux
5 posts
Dialogue (format)
History
Efficient Market Hypothesis
252
What 2026 looks like
Daniel Kokotajlo
1y
98
137
Christiano, Cotra, and Yudkowsky on AI progress
Eliezer Yudkowsky
1y
95
130
Conversation on technology forecasting and gradualism
Richard_Ngo
1y
31
93
More Christiano, Cotra, and Yudkowsky on AI progress
Eliezer Yudkowsky
1y
30
80
Announcing Epoch: A research organization investigating the road to Transformative AI
Jsevillamol
5mo
2
74
AI strategy nearcasting
HoldenKarnofsky
3mo
3
66
Persuasion Tools: AI takeover without AGI or agency?
Daniel Kokotajlo
2y
24
64
Risks from AI persuasion
Beth Barnes
12mo
15
59
Forecasting progress in language models
Matthew Barnett
1y
5
42
Forecasting AI Progress: A Research Agenda
rossg
2y
4
40
Mathematical Models of Progress?
abramdemski
1y
8
39
For the past, in some ways only, we are moral degenerates
Stuart_Armstrong
3y
17
29
[AN #121]: Forecasting transformative AI timelines using biological anchors
Rohin Shah
2y
5
25
Forecasting ML Benchmarks in 2023
jsteinhardt
5mo
19
191
Biology-Inspired AGI Timelines: The Trick That Never Works
Eliezer Yudkowsky
1y
143
170
Birds, Brains, Planes, and AI: Against Appeals to the Complexity/Mysteriousness/Efficiency of the Brain
Daniel Kokotajlo
1y
85
155
Cortés, Pizarro, and Afonso as Precedents for Takeover
Daniel Kokotajlo
2y
75
73
Security Mindset and Takeoff Speeds
DanielFilan
2y
23
21
What are the best precedents for industries failing to invest in valuable AI research?
Daniel Kokotajlo
2y
17