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28 posts
Prediction markets
Research
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Manifold Markets
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
Apollo Academic Surveys
20 posts
Newsletters
Weekly Summaries (project)
Future Matters
Effective Altruism Behavioral Science Newsletter
Asterisk
136
Does putting kids in school now put money in their pockets later? Revisiting a natural experiment in Indonesia
David Roodman
25d
24
32
Prediction market does not imply causation
Lizka
2mo
19
106
Finding before funding: Why EA should probably invest more in research
Falk Lieder
4mo
11
97
Prediction Markets in The Corporate Setting
NunoSempere
11mo
15
26
Forum ranking system prototype: Cause Prioritsation Contest posts ranked by prediction markets
Nathan Young
3mo
5
39
Questions about and Objections to 'Sharing the World with Digital Minds' (2020)
Dr. David Mathers
2mo
3
15
Prediction Markets are Somewhat Overrated Within EA
Francis
3mo
4
187
Comparing top forecasters and domain experts
Gavin
9mo
39
33
[Cause Exploration Prizes] Social and Behavioral Science R&D
Anna Harvey
4mo
2
41
Summary of 'Sharing the World With Digital Minds' by Carl Shulman and Nick Bostrom
Dr. David Mathers
2mo
1
88
The Track Record of Futurists Seems ... Fine
Holden Karnofsky
5mo
2
15
Prediction Tournament: Who will win the Cause Exploration Prize?
Sinclair Chen
3mo
1
8
Can You Predict Who Will Win OpenPhil's Cause Exploration Prize? Bet on it!
Nathan Young
3mo
1
-3
Flagging up a 'prediction market'
Forumite
5mo
1
307
Announcing the first issue of Asterisk
Clara Collier
29d
47
38
Future Matters #5: supervolcanoes, AI takeover, and What We Owe the Future
Pablo
3mo
5
262
Introducing Asterisk
Clara Collier
6mo
33
43
EA & LW Forums Weekly Summary (17 - 23 Oct 22')
Zoe Williams
1mo
2
19
The EA Behavioral Science Newsletter #6 (September 2022)
PeterSlattery
3mo
4
30
EA & LW Forums Weekly Summary (19 - 25 Sep 22')
Zoe Williams
2mo
3
36
EA & LW Forums Weekly Summary (12 - 18 Sep 22’)
Zoe Williams
3mo
2
68
Future Matters #3: digital sentience, AGI ruin, and forecasting track records
Pablo
5mo
2
46
EA & LW Forums Weekly Summary (28 Aug - 3 Sep 22’)
Zoe Williams
3mo
1
64
Future Matters #1: AI takeoff, longtermism vs. existential risk, and probability discounting
Pablo
8mo
2
40
EA & LW Forums Weekly Summary (5 - 11 Sep 22’)
Zoe Williams
3mo
0
11
EA Behavioral Science Newsletter #3 released
PeterSlattery
1y
0
64
Future Matters #2: Clueless skepticism, 'longtermist' as an identity, and nanotechnology strategy research
Pablo
6mo
0
81
Future Matters #4: AI timelines, AGI risk, and existential risk from climate change
Pablo
4mo
0