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199 posts
Rationality
Epistemic deference
Cluelessness
Epistemology
Statistics
Cognitive bias
Fermi estimate
Risk aversion
Model uncertainty
Indirect long-term effects
Disentanglement research
Philanthropic diversification
205 posts
Forecasting
Research summary
Metaculus
Newsletters
Long-range forecasting
Forecasting Newsletter
Research
Prediction markets
Weekly Summaries (project)
Arb
Future Matters
Manifold Markets
116
Evidence, cluelessness, and the long term - Hilary Greaves
james
2y
85
5
Debate About Biased Methodology | Corentin Biteau and Elliot Temple
Elliot Temple
1mo
57
10
Why you think you're right - even when you're wrong
EA Handbook
4mo
2
141
Clarifications on diminishing returns and risk aversion in giving
Robert_Wiblin
25d
25
15
How Many Lives Does X-Risk Work Save From Nonexistence On Average?
Jordan Arel
12d
10
154
EA should blurt
RobBensinger
28d
26
15
Simple BOTEC on X-Risk Work for Neartermists
Phosphorous
18d
10
1
Ignoring “Small” Errors
Elliot Temple
19d
7
83
Beware frictions from altruistic value differences
Magnus Vinding
19d
6
11
My Experience with My Debate Policy
Elliot Temple
1mo
18
66
Probability distributions of Cost-Effectiveness can be misleading
Lorenzo Buonanno
5mo
52
116
When reporting AI timelines, be clear who you're (not) deferring to
Sam Clarke
2mo
20
1
Multi-Factor Decision Making Math
Elliot Temple
1mo
13
3
Refuting longtermism with Fermat's Last Theorem
astupple
4mo
32
76
Radical tactics can increase support for more moderate groups
James Ozden
4d
11
119
Does putting kids in school now put money in their pockets later? Revisiting a natural experiment in Indonesia
David Roodman
25d
24
275
Announcing the first issue of Asterisk
Clara Collier
29d
47
70
Creating a database for base rates
nikos
8d
7
18
Paper summary: The paralysis argument (William MacAskill and Andreas Mogensen)
Global Priorities Institute
4d
3
23
The biggest red flag about SBF
trevor1
26d
11
28
Prediction market does not imply causation
Lizka
2mo
19
15
Mogensen & MacAskill, 'The paralysis argument'
Pablo
1y
2
52
Summaries are underrated
Nathan Young
3mo
23
35
My current best guess on how to aggregate forecasts
Jaime Sevilla
1y
11
144
EA & LW Forums Weekly Summary (21 Aug - 27 Aug 22’)
Zoe Williams
3mo
14
74
Tracking the money flows in forecasting
NunoSempere
1mo
4
45
Epistemics-Improving Activities for Groups and Friends
ChanaMessinger
2mo
7
49
[Cause Exploration Prizes] Training experts to be forecasters
Sam Abbott
3mo
9