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alive
57 posts
Cluelessness
Fermi estimate
Risk aversion
Model uncertainty
Disentanglement research
Indirect long-term effects
Philanthropic diversification
Crucial consideration
Moral offsetting
Meat-eater problem
Broad vs. narrow interventions
Hilary Greaves
142 posts
Rationality
Epistemic deference
Epistemology
Statistics
Cognitive bias
Optimizer's curse
Bayesian epistemology
Scope neglect
Independent impression
Giving and happiness
Thinking at the margin
Conflict theory vs. mistake theory
116
Evidence, cluelessness, and the long term - Hilary Greaves
james
2y
85
141
Clarifications on diminishing returns and risk aversion in giving
Robert_Wiblin
25d
25
15
How Many Lives Does X-Risk Work Save From Nonexistence On Average?
Jordan Arel
12d
10
15
Simple BOTEC on X-Risk Work for Neartermists
Phosphorous
18d
10
3
Refuting longtermism with Fermat's Last Theorem
astupple
4mo
32
107
EAs underestimate uncertainty in cause prioritisation
freedomandutility
3mo
20
78
Meat Externalities
Richard Y Chappell
5mo
12
45
Why does GiveWell not provide lower and upper estimates for the cost-effectiveness of its top charities?
Vasco Grilo
4mo
8
45
Introduction to Fermi estimates
NunoSempere
3mo
5
37
Guesstimate Algorithm for Medical Research
Elizabeth
2mo
2
8
How much donations are needed to neutralise the annual x-risk footprint of the mean human?
Vasco Grilo
2mo
2
19
We’re really bad at guessing the future
Benj Azose
4mo
2
115
A practical guide to long-term planning – and suggestions for longtermism
weeatquince
1y
12
21
Leveraging finance to increase resilience to GCRs
PhilC
10mo
8
5
Debate About Biased Methodology | Corentin Biteau and Elliot Temple
Elliot Temple
1mo
57
10
Why you think you're right - even when you're wrong
EA Handbook
4mo
2
154
EA should blurt
RobBensinger
28d
26
1
Ignoring “Small” Errors
Elliot Temple
19d
7
83
Beware frictions from altruistic value differences
Magnus Vinding
19d
6
11
My Experience with My Debate Policy
Elliot Temple
1mo
18
66
Probability distributions of Cost-Effectiveness can be misleading
Lorenzo Buonanno
5mo
52
116
When reporting AI timelines, be clear who you're (not) deferring to
Sam Clarke
2mo
20
1
Multi-Factor Decision Making Math
Elliot Temple
1mo
13
42
Binding Fuzzies and Utilons Together
eleni
2y
8
120
Invisible impact loss (and why we can be too error-averse)
Lizka
2mo
14
14
In extremely high-stakes scenarios, it's ok not to maximise expected utility
Pivocajs
2mo
12
9
Good decisions
Yadav
24d
3
50
Scout Mindset Poster
Anthony Fleming
2mo
8