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alive
25 posts
Statistics
Optimizer's curse
23 posts
Epistemology
Bayesian epistemology
Bayes' Theorem
26
Estimating value from pairwise comparisons
Jonas Moss
2mo
3
48
Probability distributions of Cost-Effectiveness can be misleading
Lorenzo Buonanno
5mo
52
19
A peek at pairwise preference estimation in economics, marketing, and statistics
Jonas Moss
2mo
5
41
Don't Over-Optimize Things
Owen Cotton-Barratt
6mo
7
15
Political Science Quantitative Methods and EA
Mahendra Prasad
3mo
1
244
List of ways in which cost-effectiveness estimates can be misleading
saulius
3y
30
218
Reality is often underpowered
Gregory Lewis
3y
17
87
[Link] The Optimizer's Curse & Wrong-Way Reductions
Chris Smith
3y
61
22
The Multi-Class Optimizer's Curse
FeelingSentient
1y
0
40
[Stats4EA] Expectations are not Outcomes
matthewp
2y
5
12
Use Normal Predictions
Jan Christian Refsgaard
11mo
1
28
Take care with notation for uncertain quantities
Gregory Lewis
2y
2
24
Turning percentages back into people: personalizing quantification
sky
2y
0
15
Statistics for Lazy People, Part 2
Hmash
1y
2
37
Tyranny of the Epistemic Majority
Scott Garrabrant
28d
2
19
The Geometric Expectation
Scott Garrabrant
27d
0
162
Global health is important for the epistemic foundations of EA, even for longtermists
Owen Cotton-Barratt
6mo
16
89
Limits to Legibility
Jan_Kulveit
5mo
3
177
Flimsy Pet Theories, Enormous Initiatives
Ozzie Gooen
1y
57
72
Bayesian Mindset
Holden Karnofsky
12mo
19
7
Multi-Factor Decision Making Math
Elliot Temple
1mo
13
73
Disagreeables and Assessors: Two Intellectual Archetypes
Ozzie Gooen
1y
20
22
Red teaming a model for estimating the value of longtermist interventions - A critique of Tarsney's "The Epistemic Challenge to Longtermism"
Anjay F
5mo
0
25
Where can I find good criticisms of EA made by non-EAs?
oh54321
6mo
5
89
Deference for Bayesians
John G. Halstead
1y
30
13
Bayes' rule: Guide
EA Handbook
5mo
0
21
A thinking tool for whether X causes Y
Ben Stewart
8mo
0
11
Anecdotes Can Be Strong Evidence and Bayes Theorem Proves It
FCCC
9mo
5