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25 posts
Statistics
Optimizer's curse
23 posts
Epistemology
Bayesian epistemology
Bayes' Theorem
30
A peek at pairwise preference estimation in economics, marketing, and statistics
Jonas Moss
2mo
5
34
Estimating value from pairwise comparisons
Jonas Moss
2mo
3
66
Probability distributions of Cost-Effectiveness can be misleading
Lorenzo Buonanno
5mo
52
52
Don't Over-Optimize Things
Owen Cotton-Barratt
6mo
7
12
Political Science Quantitative Methods and EA
Mahendra Prasad
3mo
1
209
Reality is often underpowered
Gregory Lewis
3y
17
204
List of ways in which cost-effectiveness estimates can be misleading
saulius
3y
30
12
Use Normal Predictions
Jan Christian Refsgaard
11mo
1
39
Take care with notation for uncertain quantities
Gregory Lewis
2y
2
37
[Stats4EA] Expectations are not Outcomes
matthewp
2y
5
23
The Multi-Class Optimizer's Curse
FeelingSentient
1y
0
25
Turning percentages back into people: personalizing quantification
sky
2y
0
84
[Link] The Optimizer's Curse & Wrong-Way Reductions
Chris Smith
3y
61
17
How to Understand and Mitigate Risk (Crosspost from LessWrong)
Halffull
3y
7
41
Tyranny of the Epistemic Majority
Scott Garrabrant
28d
2
24
The Geometric Expectation
Scott Garrabrant
27d
0
160
Global health is important for the epistemic foundations of EA, even for longtermists
Owen Cotton-Barratt
6mo
16
98
Limits to Legibility
Jan_Kulveit
5mo
3
208
Flimsy Pet Theories, Enormous Initiatives
Ozzie Gooen
1y
57
1
Multi-Factor Decision Making Math
Elliot Temple
1mo
13
72
Bayesian Mindset
Holden Karnofsky
12mo
19
21
Red teaming a model for estimating the value of longtermist interventions - A critique of Tarsney's "The Epistemic Challenge to Longtermism"
Anjay F
5mo
0
26
Where can I find good criticisms of EA made by non-EAs?
oh54321
6mo
5
85
Disagreeables and Assessors: Two Intellectual Archetypes
Ozzie Gooen
1y
20
97
Deference for Bayesians
John G. Halstead
1y
30
5
LW4EA: Epistemic Legibility
Jeremy
4mo
2
22
A thinking tool for whether X causes Y
Ben Stewart
8mo
0
4
Bayes' Theorem explained
Tomer_Goloboy
8mo
1