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alive
11 posts
Altruistic wager
Pascal's mugging
14 posts
Expected value
14
Does this solve Pascal's Muggings?
Sanjay
3mo
26
56
Layman’s Summary of Resolving Pascallian Decision Problems with Stochastic Dominance
Ben_West
1y
11
51
Expected value theory is fanatical, but that's a good thing
HaydenW
2y
20
28
Metaethical Fanaticism (Dialogue)
Lukas_Gloor
2y
10
14
Interview with Tom Chivers: “AI is a plausible existential risk, but it feels as if I’m in Pascal’s mugging”
felix.h
1y
1
26
Tiny Probabilities of Vast Utilities: Defusing the Initial Worry and Steelmanning the Problem
kokotajlod
4y
10
20
Tiny Probabilities of Vast Utilities: A Problem for Long-Termism?
kokotajlod
4y
17
4
Pascal's Mugging and abandoning credences
AndreaSR
1y
9
7
Tiny Probabilities of Vast Utilities: Bibliography and Appendix
kokotajlod
4y
0
7
Pascal's Mugging
EA Handbook
13y
0
-3
SBF, Pascal's Mugging, and a Proposed Solution
Cole Killian
1mo
0
92
Do Brains Contain Many Conscious Subsystems? If So, Should We Act Differently?
Bob Fischer
15d
7
31
Should strong longtermists really want to minimize existential risk?
tobycrisford
16d
9
8
Protecting EV calculations against motivated reasoning
freedomandutility
8d
0
66
The Maximum Impact Fund is now the Top Charities Fund
GiveWell
3mo
3
13
EV Maximization for Humans
Sharmake
3mo
0
12
High-risk high-reward philanthropy: applying venture capital concepts to doing good
James Ozden
5mo
2
17
My notes on: Why we can’t take expected value estimates literally (even when they’re unbiased)
Vasco Grilo
8mo
0
6
A model about the effect of total existential risk on career choice
Jonas Moss
3mo
4
31
Mundane trouble with EV / utility
Ben Esche
1y
17
4
Biting the Bullet on Pascal's Mugging
Matthew Barber
3mo
0
16
A General Treatment of the Moral Value of Information
Hazelfire
1y
0
16
Expected Value
james
2y
1
2
A Paradox for Tiny Probabilities and Enormous Values
Global Priorities Institute
1y
1
-2
Expected Value
EA Handbook
5mo
1