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44 posts
Fermi estimate
Risk aversion
Model uncertainty
Disentanglement research
Crucial consideration
Philanthropic diversification
Moral offsetting
Meat-eater problem
Broad vs. narrow interventions
Crux
Alignment tax
Sequence vs. cluster thinking
13 posts
Cluelessness
Indirect long-term effects
Hilary Greaves
141
Clarifications on diminishing returns and risk aversion in giving
Robert_Wiblin
25d
25
107
EAs underestimate uncertainty in cause prioritisation
freedomandutility
3mo
20
78
Meat Externalities
Richard Y Chappell
5mo
12
62
Hedging against deep and moral uncertainty
MichaelStJules
2y
11
45
Why does GiveWell not provide lower and upper estimates for the cost-effectiveness of its top charities?
Vasco Grilo
4mo
8
45
Introduction to Fermi estimates
NunoSempere
3mo
5
43
Should marginal longtermist donations support fundamental or intervention research?
MichaelA
2y
4
41
Concerns with Difference-Making Risk Aversion
Charlotte
6mo
1
38
Ethical offsetting is antithetical to EA
ClaireZabel
6y
78
37
Guesstimate Algorithm for Medical Research
Elizabeth
2mo
2
29
Where should I donate?
BrownHairedEevee
1y
10
23
Make your own cost-effectiveness Fermi estimates for one-off problems
Owen Cotton-Barratt
8y
11
23
Quantifying the Impact of Economic Growth on Meat Consumption
kbog
7y
38
23
Poor meat eater problem
Alex HT
2y
1
116
Evidence, cluelessness, and the long term - Hilary Greaves
james
2y
85
115
A practical guide to long-term planning – and suggestions for longtermism
weeatquince
1y
12
57
What's your prior probability that "good things are good" (for the long-term future)?
Linch
10mo
12
56
Complex cluelessness as credal fragility
Gregory Lewis
1y
50
52
What should we call the other problem of cluelessness?
Owen Cotton-Barratt
1y
22
46
Doing good while clueless
Milan_Griffes
4y
8
29
What consequences?
Milan_Griffes
5y
22
21
Leveraging finance to increase resilience to GCRs
PhilC
10mo
8
19
We’re really bad at guessing the future
Benj Azose
4mo
2
19
How tractable is cluelessness?
Milan_Griffes
4y
2
14
“Just take the expected value” – a possible reply to concerns about cluelessness
Milan_Griffes
5y
31
4
Heuristics for clueless agents: how to get away with ignoring what matters most in ordinary decision-making
Global Priorities Institute
2y
0
3
Has anyone wrote something using moral cluelessness to "debunk" anti-consequentialist thought experiments?
capybaralet
1y
1