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44 posts
Fermi estimate
Risk aversion
Model uncertainty
Disentanglement research
Crucial consideration
Philanthropic diversification
Moral offsetting
Meat-eater problem
Broad vs. narrow interventions
Crux
Alignment tax
Sequence vs. cluster thinking
13 posts
Cluelessness
Indirect long-term effects
Hilary Greaves
141
Clarifications on diminishing returns and risk aversion in giving
Robert_Wiblin
25d
25
15
How Many Lives Does X-Risk Work Save From Nonexistence On Average?
Jordan Arel
12d
10
15
Simple BOTEC on X-Risk Work for Neartermists
Phosphorous
18d
10
107
EAs underestimate uncertainty in cause prioritisation
freedomandutility
3mo
20
37
Guesstimate Algorithm for Medical Research
Elizabeth
2mo
2
78
Meat Externalities
Richard Y Chappell
5mo
12
6
The moral problem of offsetting
Yatlas
1mo
0
45
Introduction to Fermi estimates
NunoSempere
3mo
5
45
Why does GiveWell not provide lower and upper estimates for the cost-effectiveness of its top charities?
Vasco Grilo
4mo
8
41
Concerns with Difference-Making Risk Aversion
Charlotte
6mo
1
8
How much donations are needed to neutralise the annual x-risk footprint of the mean human?
Vasco Grilo
2mo
2
12
“How many people might ever exist, calculated” by Primer [Video]
Ezra Newman
4mo
0
20
My notes on: Sequence thinking vs. cluster thinking
Vasco Grilo
6mo
0
3
Refuting longtermism with Fermat's Last Theorem
astupple
4mo
32
115
A practical guide to long-term planning – and suggestions for longtermism
weeatquince
1y
12
19
We’re really bad at guessing the future
Benj Azose
4mo
2
57
What's your prior probability that "good things are good" (for the long-term future)?
Linch
10mo
12
116
Evidence, cluelessness, and the long term - Hilary Greaves
james
2y
85
52
What should we call the other problem of cluelessness?
Owen Cotton-Barratt
1y
22
21
Leveraging finance to increase resilience to GCRs
PhilC
10mo
8
56
Complex cluelessness as credal fragility
Gregory Lewis
1y
50
46
Doing good while clueless
Milan_Griffes
4y
8
3
Has anyone wrote something using moral cluelessness to "debunk" anti-consequentialist thought experiments?
capybaralet
1y
1
29
What consequences?
Milan_Griffes
5y
22
14
“Just take the expected value” – a possible reply to concerns about cluelessness
Milan_Griffes
5y
31
19
How tractable is cluelessness?
Milan_Griffes
4y
2
4
Heuristics for clueless agents: how to get away with ignoring what matters most in ordinary decision-making
Global Priorities Institute
2y
0