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meritocratic
regular
democratic
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alive
13 posts
Calibration
6 posts
Underconfidence
137
Use Normal Predictions
Jan Christian Refsgaard
11mo
69
95
Calibrate your self-assessments
Scott Alexander
11y
121
54
Calibration Test with database of 150,000+ questions
Nanashi
7y
31
25
A Motorcycle (and Calibration?) Accident
boggler
4y
11
20
Is there a.. more exact.. way of scoring a predictor's calibration?
mako yass
3y
6
19
What are good ML/AI related prediction / calibration questions for 2019?
james_t
3y
4
51
Raising the forecasting waterline (part 1)
Morendil
10y
106
6
Prediction and Calibration - Part 1
Jan Christian Refsgaard
1y
11
54
Qualitatively Confused
Eliezer Yudkowsky
14y
82
30
Calibration for continuous quantities
Cyan
13y
13
32
Horrible LHC Inconsistency
Eliezer Yudkowsky
14y
34
6
RFC on an open problem: how to determine probabilities in the face of social distortion
ialdabaoth
5y
3
0
Calibration Gaming
Jonathan Yan
2mo
4
132
Irrational Modesty
Tomás B.
1y
7
93
The Sin of Underconfidence
Eliezer Yudkowsky
13y
185
36
Simultaneous Overconfidence and Underconfidence
abramdemski
7y
6
17
A note about calibration of confidence
jbay
6y
35
28
The Importance of Self-Doubt
multifoliaterose
12y
746
10
How confident should we be?
10y
19