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meritocratic
regular
democratic
hot
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alive
13 posts
Calibration
6 posts
Underconfidence
156
Use Normal Predictions
Jan Christian Refsgaard
11mo
69
4
Calibration Gaming
Jonathan Yan
2mo
4
11
Prediction and Calibration - Part 1
Jan Christian Refsgaard
1y
11
73
Calibrate your self-assessments
Scott Alexander
11y
121
21
What are good ML/AI related prediction / calibration questions for 2019?
james_t
3y
4
18
Is there a.. more exact.. way of scoring a predictor's calibration?
mako yass
3y
6
39
Calibration Test with database of 150,000+ questions
Nanashi
7y
31
21
A Motorcycle (and Calibration?) Accident
boggler
4y
11
70
Qualitatively Confused
Eliezer Yudkowsky
14y
82
34
Raising the forecasting waterline (part 1)
Morendil
10y
106
27
Calibration for continuous quantities
Cyan
13y
13
24
Horrible LHC Inconsistency
Eliezer Yudkowsky
14y
34
4
RFC on an open problem: how to determine probabilities in the face of social distortion
ialdabaoth
5y
3
122
Irrational Modesty
Tomás B.
1y
7
119
The Sin of Underconfidence
Eliezer Yudkowsky
13y
185
25
Simultaneous Overconfidence and Underconfidence
abramdemski
7y
6
13
A note about calibration of confidence
jbay
6y
35
24
The Importance of Self-Doubt
multifoliaterose
12y
746
6
How confident should we be?
10y
19