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19 posts
Calibration
Underconfidence
20 posts
Games (posts describing)
Aumann's Agreement Theorem
Scoring Rules
Aggregation
156
Use Normal Predictions
Jan Christian Refsgaard
11mo
69
122
Irrational Modesty
Tomás B.
1y
7
4
Calibration Gaming
Jonathan Yan
2mo
4
11
Prediction and Calibration - Part 1
Jan Christian Refsgaard
1y
11
119
The Sin of Underconfidence
Eliezer Yudkowsky
13y
185
73
Calibrate your self-assessments
Scott Alexander
11y
121
21
What are good ML/AI related prediction / calibration questions for 2019?
james_t
3y
4
18
Is there a.. more exact.. way of scoring a predictor's calibration?
mako yass
3y
6
39
Calibration Test with database of 150,000+ questions
Nanashi
7y
31
21
A Motorcycle (and Calibration?) Accident
boggler
4y
11
70
Qualitatively Confused
Eliezer Yudkowsky
14y
82
25
Simultaneous Overconfidence and Underconfidence
abramdemski
7y
6
34
Raising the forecasting waterline (part 1)
Morendil
10y
106
27
Calibration for continuous quantities
Cyan
13y
13
55
AI takeover tabletop RPG: "The Treacherous Turn"
Daniel Kokotajlo
20d
3
9
Crossword puzzle: LessWrong Halloween 2022
jchan
2mo
11
126
Bayesian examination
Lê Nguyên Hoang
3y
56
58
Bayes-Up: An App for Sharing Bayesian-MCQ
Louis Faucon
2y
9
38
The AI Safety Game (UPDATED)
Daniel Kokotajlo
2y
9
12
What’s the weirdest way to win this game?
Adam Scherlis
1y
5
7
Solving the Brazilian Children's Game of 007
Epirito
8mo
6
43
A Proper Scoring Rule for Confidence Intervals
Scott Garrabrant
4y
47
7
It's Good Enough -- A Party Game
Zmavli Caimle
1y
0
108
Bayesian Judo
Eliezer Yudkowsky
15y
108
33
Why is the surprisingly popular answer correct?
Stuart_Armstrong
5y
13
31
Credence Calibration Icebreaker Game
Ruby
8y
1
24
Aumann Agreement Game
abramdemski
7y
16
6
A fun calibration game: "0-hit Google phrases"
David Scott Krueger (formerly: capybaralet)
3y
1