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meritocratic
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alive
19 posts
Calibration
Underconfidence
20 posts
Games (posts describing)
Aumann's Agreement Theorem
Scoring Rules
Aggregation
156
Use Normal Predictions
Jan Christian Refsgaard
11mo
69
122
Irrational Modesty
Tomás B.
1y
7
119
The Sin of Underconfidence
Eliezer Yudkowsky
13y
185
73
Calibrate your self-assessments
Scott Alexander
11y
121
70
Qualitatively Confused
Eliezer Yudkowsky
14y
82
39
Calibration Test with database of 150,000+ questions
Nanashi
7y
31
34
Raising the forecasting waterline (part 1)
Morendil
10y
106
27
Calibration for continuous quantities
Cyan
13y
13
25
Simultaneous Overconfidence and Underconfidence
abramdemski
7y
6
24
The Importance of Self-Doubt
multifoliaterose
12y
746
24
Horrible LHC Inconsistency
Eliezer Yudkowsky
14y
34
21
A Motorcycle (and Calibration?) Accident
boggler
4y
11
21
What are good ML/AI related prediction / calibration questions for 2019?
james_t
3y
4
18
Is there a.. more exact.. way of scoring a predictor's calibration?
mako yass
3y
6
126
Bayesian examination
Lê Nguyên Hoang
3y
56
108
Bayesian Judo
Eliezer Yudkowsky
15y
108
58
Bayes-Up: An App for Sharing Bayesian-MCQ
Louis Faucon
2y
9
55
AI takeover tabletop RPG: "The Treacherous Turn"
Daniel Kokotajlo
20d
3
43
A Proper Scoring Rule for Confidence Intervals
Scott Garrabrant
4y
47
38
The AI Safety Game (UPDATED)
Daniel Kokotajlo
2y
9
33
Why is the surprisingly popular answer correct?
Stuart_Armstrong
5y
13
31
Credence Calibration Icebreaker Game
Ruby
8y
1
24
Aumann Agreement Game
abramdemski
7y
16
18
The Error of Crowds
Eliezer Yudkowsky
15y
13
16
Credence calibration game FAQ
Academian
10y
57
16
The Aumann's agreement theorem game (guess 2/3 of the average)
13y
156
12
What’s the weirdest way to win this game?
Adam Scherlis
1y
5
10
The Mechanics of Disagreement
Eliezer Yudkowsky
14y
26