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39 posts
Calibration
Games (posts describing)
Aumann's Agreement Theorem
Underconfidence
Scoring Rules
Aggregation
19 posts
Humility
Modest Epistemology
Research Taste
156
Use Normal Predictions
Jan Christian Refsgaard
11mo
69
126
Bayesian examination
Lê Nguyên Hoang
3y
56
122
Irrational Modesty
Tomás B.
1y
7
119
The Sin of Underconfidence
Eliezer Yudkowsky
13y
185
108
Bayesian Judo
Eliezer Yudkowsky
15y
108
73
Calibrate your self-assessments
Scott Alexander
11y
121
70
Qualitatively Confused
Eliezer Yudkowsky
14y
82
58
Bayes-Up: An App for Sharing Bayesian-MCQ
Louis Faucon
2y
9
55
AI takeover tabletop RPG: "The Treacherous Turn"
Daniel Kokotajlo
20d
3
43
A Proper Scoring Rule for Confidence Intervals
Scott Garrabrant
4y
47
39
Calibration Test with database of 150,000+ questions
Nanashi
7y
31
38
The AI Safety Game (UPDATED)
Daniel Kokotajlo
2y
9
34
Raising the forecasting waterline (part 1)
Morendil
10y
106
33
Why is the surprisingly popular answer correct?
Stuart_Armstrong
5y
13
188
The Proper Use of Humility
Eliezer Yudkowsky
16y
54
145
My research methodology
paulfchristiano
1y
36
132
Einstein's Superpowers
Eliezer Yudkowsky
14y
93
68
How I Formed My Own Views About AI Safety
Neel Nanda
9mo
6
63
Against Modest Epistemology
Eliezer Yudkowsky
5y
49
55
The Modesty Argument
Eliezer Yudkowsky
16y
40
53
Say It Loud
Eliezer Yudkowsky
14y
20
40
Against Shooting Yourself in the Foot
Eliezer Yudkowsky
5y
3
37
The underappreciated value of original thinking below the frontier
Emrik
1y
2
34
In defence of epistemic modesty
Thrasymachus
5y
22
27
Placing Yourself as an Instance of a Class
abramdemski
5y
5
22
The Prediction Hierarchy
RobinZ
12y
38
19
Are You Anosognosic?
Eliezer Yudkowsky
13y
67
12
Timeless Modesty?
abramdemski
5y
2