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39 posts
Calibration
Games (posts describing)
Aumann's Agreement Theorem
Underconfidence
Scoring Rules
Aggregation
19 posts
Humility
Modest Epistemology
Research Taste
142
Irrational Modesty
Tomás B.
1y
7
118
Use Normal Predictions
Jan Christian Refsgaard
11mo
69
117
Calibrate your self-assessments
Scott Alexander
11y
121
81
A Proper Scoring Rule for Confidence Intervals
Scott Garrabrant
4y
47
69
Calibration Test with database of 150,000+ questions
Nanashi
7y
31
68
Raising the forecasting waterline (part 1)
Morendil
10y
106
67
The Sin of Underconfidence
Eliezer Yudkowsky
13y
185
66
Bayesian Judo
Eliezer Yudkowsky
15y
108
53
Credence Calibration Icebreaker Game
Ruby
8y
1
53
Why is the surprisingly popular answer correct?
Stuart_Armstrong
5y
13
50
The AI Safety Game (UPDATED)
Daniel Kokotajlo
2y
9
48
Bayes-Up: An App for Sharing Bayesian-MCQ
Louis Faucon
2y
9
47
Simultaneous Overconfidence and Underconfidence
abramdemski
7y
6
47
AI takeover tabletop RPG: "The Treacherous Turn"
Daniel Kokotajlo
20d
3
151
My research methodology
paulfchristiano
1y
36
120
The Proper Use of Humility
Eliezer Yudkowsky
16y
54
61
Against Modest Epistemology
Eliezer Yudkowsky
5y
49
60
How I Formed My Own Views About AI Safety
Neel Nanda
9mo
6
59
Say It Loud
Eliezer Yudkowsky
14y
20
56
Einstein's Superpowers
Eliezer Yudkowsky
14y
93
51
The Modesty Argument
Eliezer Yudkowsky
16y
40
46
Against Shooting Yourself in the Foot
Eliezer Yudkowsky
5y
3
39
Placing Yourself as an Instance of a Class
abramdemski
5y
5
34
The Prediction Hierarchy
RobinZ
12y
38
31
The underappreciated value of original thinking below the frontier
Emrik
1y
2
28
In defence of epistemic modesty
Thrasymachus
5y
22
22
Timeless Modesty?
abramdemski
5y
2
21
Are You Anosognosic?
Eliezer Yudkowsky
13y
67