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19 posts
Calibration
Underconfidence
20 posts
Games (posts describing)
Aumann's Agreement Theorem
Scoring Rules
Aggregation
142
Irrational Modesty
Tomás B.
1y
7
118
Use Normal Predictions
Jan Christian Refsgaard
11mo
69
117
Calibrate your self-assessments
Scott Alexander
11y
121
69
Calibration Test with database of 150,000+ questions
Nanashi
7y
31
68
Raising the forecasting waterline (part 1)
Morendil
10y
106
67
The Sin of Underconfidence
Eliezer Yudkowsky
13y
185
47
Simultaneous Overconfidence and Underconfidence
abramdemski
7y
6
40
Horrible LHC Inconsistency
Eliezer Yudkowsky
14y
34
38
Qualitatively Confused
Eliezer Yudkowsky
14y
82
33
Calibration for continuous quantities
Cyan
13y
13
32
The Importance of Self-Doubt
multifoliaterose
12y
746
29
A Motorcycle (and Calibration?) Accident
boggler
4y
11
22
Is there a.. more exact.. way of scoring a predictor's calibration?
mako yass
3y
6
21
A note about calibration of confidence
jbay
6y
35
81
A Proper Scoring Rule for Confidence Intervals
Scott Garrabrant
4y
47
66
Bayesian Judo
Eliezer Yudkowsky
15y
108
53
Credence Calibration Icebreaker Game
Ruby
8y
1
53
Why is the surprisingly popular answer correct?
Stuart_Armstrong
5y
13
50
The AI Safety Game (UPDATED)
Daniel Kokotajlo
2y
9
48
Bayes-Up: An App for Sharing Bayesian-MCQ
Louis Faucon
2y
9
47
AI takeover tabletop RPG: "The Treacherous Turn"
Daniel Kokotajlo
20d
3
46
Bayesian examination
Lê Nguyên Hoang
3y
56
40
Aumann Agreement Game
abramdemski
7y
16
32
Credence calibration game FAQ
Academian
10y
57
28
The Error of Crowds
Eliezer Yudkowsky
15y
13
20
The Aumann's agreement theorem game (guess 2/3 of the average)
13y
156
18
Alternative to Bayesian Score
Scott Garrabrant
9y
30
18
The Mechanics of Disagreement
Eliezer Yudkowsky
14y
26