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19 posts
Calibration
Underconfidence
20 posts
Games (posts describing)
Aumann's Agreement Theorem
Scoring Rules
Aggregation
118
Use Normal Predictions
Jan Christian Refsgaard
11mo
69
142
Irrational Modesty
Tomás B.
1y
7
117
Calibrate your self-assessments
Scott Alexander
11y
121
69
Calibration Test with database of 150,000+ questions
Nanashi
7y
31
29
A Motorcycle (and Calibration?) Accident
boggler
4y
11
68
Raising the forecasting waterline (part 1)
Morendil
10y
106
47
Simultaneous Overconfidence and Underconfidence
abramdemski
7y
6
22
Is there a.. more exact.. way of scoring a predictor's calibration?
mako yass
3y
6
17
What are good ML/AI related prediction / calibration questions for 2019?
james_t
3y
4
67
The Sin of Underconfidence
Eliezer Yudkowsky
13y
185
21
A note about calibration of confidence
jbay
6y
35
40
Horrible LHC Inconsistency
Eliezer Yudkowsky
14y
34
32
The Importance of Self-Doubt
multifoliaterose
12y
746
38
Qualitatively Confused
Eliezer Yudkowsky
14y
82
47
AI takeover tabletop RPG: "The Treacherous Turn"
Daniel Kokotajlo
20d
3
11
Crossword puzzle: LessWrong Halloween 2022
jchan
2mo
11
50
The AI Safety Game (UPDATED)
Daniel Kokotajlo
2y
9
48
Bayes-Up: An App for Sharing Bayesian-MCQ
Louis Faucon
2y
9
81
A Proper Scoring Rule for Confidence Intervals
Scott Garrabrant
4y
47
46
Bayesian examination
Lê Nguyên Hoang
3y
56
53
Why is the surprisingly popular answer correct?
Stuart_Armstrong
5y
13
6
What’s the weirdest way to win this game?
Adam Scherlis
1y
5
53
Credence Calibration Icebreaker Game
Ruby
8y
1
40
Aumann Agreement Game
abramdemski
7y
16
66
Bayesian Judo
Eliezer Yudkowsky
15y
108
32
Credence calibration game FAQ
Academian
10y
57
6
A fun calibration game: "0-hit Google phrases"
David Scott Krueger (formerly: capybaralet)
3y
1
18
Alternative to Bayesian Score
Scott Garrabrant
9y
30