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19 posts
Calibration
Underconfidence
20 posts
Games (posts describing)
Aumann's Agreement Theorem
Scoring Rules
Aggregation
-4
Calibration Gaming
Jonathan Yan
2mo
4
21
A note about calibration of confidence
jbay
6y
35
8
RFC on an open problem: how to determine probabilities in the face of social distortion
ialdabaoth
5y
3
1
Prediction and Calibration - Part 1
Jan Christian Refsgaard
1y
11
32
The Importance of Self-Doubt
multifoliaterose
12y
746
38
Qualitatively Confused
Eliezer Yudkowsky
14y
82
118
Use Normal Predictions
Jan Christian Refsgaard
11mo
69
47
Simultaneous Overconfidence and Underconfidence
abramdemski
7y
6
29
A Motorcycle (and Calibration?) Accident
boggler
4y
11
69
Calibration Test with database of 150,000+ questions
Nanashi
7y
31
68
Raising the forecasting waterline (part 1)
Morendil
10y
106
117
Calibrate your self-assessments
Scott Alexander
11y
121
14
How confident should we be?
10y
19
142
Irrational Modesty
Tomás B.
1y
7
47
AI takeover tabletop RPG: "The Treacherous Turn"
Daniel Kokotajlo
20d
3
11
Crossword puzzle: LessWrong Halloween 2022
jchan
2mo
11
40
Aumann Agreement Game
abramdemski
7y
16
66
Bayesian Judo
Eliezer Yudkowsky
15y
108
48
Bayes-Up: An App for Sharing Bayesian-MCQ
Louis Faucon
2y
9
53
Credence Calibration Icebreaker Game
Ruby
8y
1
-1
It's Good Enough -- A Party Game
Zmavli Caimle
1y
0
46
Bayesian examination
Lê Nguyên Hoang
3y
56
53
Why is the surprisingly popular answer correct?
Stuart_Armstrong
5y
13
32
Credence calibration game FAQ
Academian
10y
57
18
Alternative to Bayesian Score
Scott Garrabrant
9y
30
50
The AI Safety Game (UPDATED)
Daniel Kokotajlo
2y
9
18
The Mechanics of Disagreement
Eliezer Yudkowsky
14y
26
20
The Aumann's agreement theorem game (guess 2/3 of the average)
13y
156