Go Back
Choose this branch
Choose this branch
meritocratic
regular
democratic
hot
top
alive
19 posts
Calibration
Underconfidence
20 posts
Games (posts describing)
Aumann's Agreement Theorem
Scoring Rules
Aggregation
4
Calibration Gaming
Jonathan Yan
2mo
4
13
A note about calibration of confidence
jbay
6y
35
4
RFC on an open problem: how to determine probabilities in the face of social distortion
ialdabaoth
5y
3
11
Prediction and Calibration - Part 1
Jan Christian Refsgaard
1y
11
24
The Importance of Self-Doubt
multifoliaterose
12y
746
70
Qualitatively Confused
Eliezer Yudkowsky
14y
82
156
Use Normal Predictions
Jan Christian Refsgaard
11mo
69
25
Simultaneous Overconfidence and Underconfidence
abramdemski
7y
6
21
A Motorcycle (and Calibration?) Accident
boggler
4y
11
39
Calibration Test with database of 150,000+ questions
Nanashi
7y
31
34
Raising the forecasting waterline (part 1)
Morendil
10y
106
73
Calibrate your self-assessments
Scott Alexander
11y
121
6
How confident should we be?
10y
19
122
Irrational Modesty
Tomás B.
1y
7
55
AI takeover tabletop RPG: "The Treacherous Turn"
Daniel Kokotajlo
20d
3
9
Crossword puzzle: LessWrong Halloween 2022
jchan
2mo
11
24
Aumann Agreement Game
abramdemski
7y
16
108
Bayesian Judo
Eliezer Yudkowsky
15y
108
58
Bayes-Up: An App for Sharing Bayesian-MCQ
Louis Faucon
2y
9
31
Credence Calibration Icebreaker Game
Ruby
8y
1
7
It's Good Enough -- A Party Game
Zmavli Caimle
1y
0
126
Bayesian examination
Lê Nguyên Hoang
3y
56
33
Why is the surprisingly popular answer correct?
Stuart_Armstrong
5y
13
16
Credence calibration game FAQ
Academian
10y
57
8
Alternative to Bayesian Score
Scott Garrabrant
9y
30
38
The AI Safety Game (UPDATED)
Daniel Kokotajlo
2y
9
10
The Mechanics of Disagreement
Eliezer Yudkowsky
14y
26
16
The Aumann's agreement theorem game (guess 2/3 of the average)
13y
156