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39 posts
Calibration
Games (posts describing)
Aumann's Agreement Theorem
Underconfidence
Scoring Rules
Aggregation
19 posts
Humility
Modest Epistemology
Research Taste
47
AI takeover tabletop RPG: "The Treacherous Turn"
Daniel Kokotajlo
20d
3
118
Use Normal Predictions
Jan Christian Refsgaard
11mo
69
142
Irrational Modesty
Tomás B.
1y
7
11
Crossword puzzle: LessWrong Halloween 2022
jchan
2mo
11
50
The AI Safety Game (UPDATED)
Daniel Kokotajlo
2y
9
48
Bayes-Up: An App for Sharing Bayesian-MCQ
Louis Faucon
2y
9
81
A Proper Scoring Rule for Confidence Intervals
Scott Garrabrant
4y
47
46
Bayesian examination
Lê Nguyên Hoang
3y
56
117
Calibrate your self-assessments
Scott Alexander
11y
121
53
Why is the surprisingly popular answer correct?
Stuart_Armstrong
5y
13
69
Calibration Test with database of 150,000+ questions
Nanashi
7y
31
6
What’s the weirdest way to win this game?
Adam Scherlis
1y
5
29
A Motorcycle (and Calibration?) Accident
boggler
4y
11
68
Raising the forecasting waterline (part 1)
Morendil
10y
106
151
My research methodology
paulfchristiano
1y
36
60
How I Formed My Own Views About AI Safety
Neel Nanda
9mo
6
6
When should you defer to expertise? A useful heuristic (Crosspost from EA forum)
Noosphere89
2mo
3
31
The underappreciated value of original thinking below the frontier
Emrik
1y
2
61
Against Modest Epistemology
Eliezer Yudkowsky
5y
49
46
Against Shooting Yourself in the Foot
Eliezer Yudkowsky
5y
3
39
Placing Yourself as an Instance of a Class
abramdemski
5y
5
120
The Proper Use of Humility
Eliezer Yudkowsky
16y
54
28
In defence of epistemic modesty
Thrasymachus
5y
22
22
Timeless Modesty?
abramdemski
5y
2
59
Say It Loud
Eliezer Yudkowsky
14y
20
56
Einstein's Superpowers
Eliezer Yudkowsky
14y
93
51
The Modesty Argument
Eliezer Yudkowsky
16y
40
34
The Prediction Hierarchy
RobinZ
12y
38