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39 posts
Calibration
Games (posts describing)
Aumann's Agreement Theorem
Underconfidence
Scoring Rules
Aggregation
19 posts
Humility
Modest Epistemology
Research Taste
55
AI takeover tabletop RPG: "The Treacherous Turn"
Daniel Kokotajlo
20d
3
156
Use Normal Predictions
Jan Christian Refsgaard
11mo
69
122
Irrational Modesty
Tomás B.
1y
7
9
Crossword puzzle: LessWrong Halloween 2022
jchan
2mo
11
126
Bayesian examination
Lê Nguyên Hoang
3y
56
4
Calibration Gaming
Jonathan Yan
2mo
4
58
Bayes-Up: An App for Sharing Bayesian-MCQ
Louis Faucon
2y
9
38
The AI Safety Game (UPDATED)
Daniel Kokotajlo
2y
9
12
What’s the weirdest way to win this game?
Adam Scherlis
1y
5
7
Solving the Brazilian Children's Game of 007
Epirito
8mo
6
43
A Proper Scoring Rule for Confidence Intervals
Scott Garrabrant
4y
47
11
Prediction and Calibration - Part 1
Jan Christian Refsgaard
1y
11
119
The Sin of Underconfidence
Eliezer Yudkowsky
13y
185
7
It's Good Enough -- A Party Game
Zmavli Caimle
1y
0
68
How I Formed My Own Views About AI Safety
Neel Nanda
9mo
6
12
When should you defer to expertise? A useful heuristic (Crosspost from EA forum)
Noosphere89
2mo
3
145
My research methodology
paulfchristiano
1y
36
37
The underappreciated value of original thinking below the frontier
Emrik
1y
2
63
Against Modest Epistemology
Eliezer Yudkowsky
5y
49
188
The Proper Use of Humility
Eliezer Yudkowsky
16y
54
40
Against Shooting Yourself in the Foot
Eliezer Yudkowsky
5y
3
132
Einstein's Superpowers
Eliezer Yudkowsky
14y
93
34
In defence of epistemic modesty
Thrasymachus
5y
22
27
Placing Yourself as an Instance of a Class
abramdemski
5y
5
5
Christenson's "Epistemology of Disagreement: The Good News"
Aidan_Kierans
1y
0
53
Say It Loud
Eliezer Yudkowsky
14y
20
55
The Modesty Argument
Eliezer Yudkowsky
16y
40
12
Timeless Modesty?
abramdemski
5y
2