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39 posts
Calibration
Games (posts describing)
Aumann's Agreement Theorem
Underconfidence
Scoring Rules
Aggregation
19 posts
Humility
Modest Epistemology
Research Taste
51
AI takeover tabletop RPG: "The Treacherous Turn"
Daniel Kokotajlo
20d
3
137
Use Normal Predictions
Jan Christian Refsgaard
11mo
69
132
Irrational Modesty
Tomás B.
1y
7
10
Crossword puzzle: LessWrong Halloween 2022
jchan
2mo
11
86
Bayesian examination
Lê Nguyên Hoang
3y
56
44
The AI Safety Game (UPDATED)
Daniel Kokotajlo
2y
9
53
Bayes-Up: An App for Sharing Bayesian-MCQ
Louis Faucon
2y
9
62
A Proper Scoring Rule for Confidence Intervals
Scott Garrabrant
4y
47
9
What’s the weirdest way to win this game?
Adam Scherlis
1y
5
95
Calibrate your self-assessments
Scott Alexander
11y
121
43
Why is the surprisingly popular answer correct?
Stuart_Armstrong
5y
13
54
Calibration Test with database of 150,000+ questions
Nanashi
7y
31
93
The Sin of Underconfidence
Eliezer Yudkowsky
13y
185
3
Solving the Brazilian Children's Game of 007
Epirito
8mo
6
64
How I Formed My Own Views About AI Safety
Neel Nanda
9mo
6
148
My research methodology
paulfchristiano
1y
36
9
When should you defer to expertise? A useful heuristic (Crosspost from EA forum)
Noosphere89
2mo
3
34
The underappreciated value of original thinking below the frontier
Emrik
1y
2
62
Against Modest Epistemology
Eliezer Yudkowsky
5y
49
43
Against Shooting Yourself in the Foot
Eliezer Yudkowsky
5y
3
154
The Proper Use of Humility
Eliezer Yudkowsky
16y
54
33
Placing Yourself as an Instance of a Class
abramdemski
5y
5
31
In defence of epistemic modesty
Thrasymachus
5y
22
94
Einstein's Superpowers
Eliezer Yudkowsky
14y
93
56
Say It Loud
Eliezer Yudkowsky
14y
20
17
Timeless Modesty?
abramdemski
5y
2
53
The Modesty Argument
Eliezer Yudkowsky
16y
40
28
The Prediction Hierarchy
RobinZ
12y
38