Go Back
Choose this branch
Choose this branch
meritocratic
regular
democratic
hot
top
alive
39 posts
Calibration
Games (posts describing)
Aumann's Agreement Theorem
Underconfidence
Scoring Rules
Aggregation
19 posts
Humility
Modest Epistemology
Research Taste
137
Use Normal Predictions
Jan Christian Refsgaard
11mo
69
132
Irrational Modesty
Tomás B.
1y
7
95
Calibrate your self-assessments
Scott Alexander
11y
121
93
The Sin of Underconfidence
Eliezer Yudkowsky
13y
185
87
Bayesian Judo
Eliezer Yudkowsky
15y
108
86
Bayesian examination
Lê Nguyên Hoang
3y
56
62
A Proper Scoring Rule for Confidence Intervals
Scott Garrabrant
4y
47
54
Qualitatively Confused
Eliezer Yudkowsky
14y
82
54
Calibration Test with database of 150,000+ questions
Nanashi
7y
31
53
Bayes-Up: An App for Sharing Bayesian-MCQ
Louis Faucon
2y
9
51
Raising the forecasting waterline (part 1)
Morendil
10y
106
51
AI takeover tabletop RPG: "The Treacherous Turn"
Daniel Kokotajlo
20d
3
44
The AI Safety Game (UPDATED)
Daniel Kokotajlo
2y
9
43
Why is the surprisingly popular answer correct?
Stuart_Armstrong
5y
13
154
The Proper Use of Humility
Eliezer Yudkowsky
16y
54
148
My research methodology
paulfchristiano
1y
36
94
Einstein's Superpowers
Eliezer Yudkowsky
14y
93
64
How I Formed My Own Views About AI Safety
Neel Nanda
9mo
6
62
Against Modest Epistemology
Eliezer Yudkowsky
5y
49
56
Say It Loud
Eliezer Yudkowsky
14y
20
53
The Modesty Argument
Eliezer Yudkowsky
16y
40
43
Against Shooting Yourself in the Foot
Eliezer Yudkowsky
5y
3
34
The underappreciated value of original thinking below the frontier
Emrik
1y
2
33
Placing Yourself as an Instance of a Class
abramdemski
5y
5
31
In defence of epistemic modesty
Thrasymachus
5y
22
28
The Prediction Hierarchy
RobinZ
12y
38
20
Are You Anosognosic?
Eliezer Yudkowsky
13y
67
17
Timeless Modesty?
abramdemski
5y
2