Go Back
Choose this branch
Choose this branch
meritocratic
regular
democratic
hot
top
alive
39 posts
Calibration
Games (posts describing)
Aumann's Agreement Theorem
Underconfidence
Scoring Rules
Aggregation
19 posts
Humility
Modest Epistemology
Research Taste
51
AI takeover tabletop RPG: "The Treacherous Turn"
Daniel Kokotajlo
20d
3
10
Crossword puzzle: LessWrong Halloween 2022
jchan
2mo
11
32
Aumann Agreement Game
abramdemski
7y
16
0
Calibration Gaming
Jonathan Yan
2mo
4
87
Bayesian Judo
Eliezer Yudkowsky
15y
108
17
A note about calibration of confidence
jbay
6y
35
6
RFC on an open problem: how to determine probabilities in the face of social distortion
ialdabaoth
5y
3
53
Bayes-Up: An App for Sharing Bayesian-MCQ
Louis Faucon
2y
9
42
Credence Calibration Icebreaker Game
Ruby
8y
1
3
It's Good Enough -- A Party Game
Zmavli Caimle
1y
0
86
Bayesian examination
Lê Nguyên Hoang
3y
56
6
Prediction and Calibration - Part 1
Jan Christian Refsgaard
1y
11
43
Why is the surprisingly popular answer correct?
Stuart_Armstrong
5y
13
28
The Importance of Self-Doubt
multifoliaterose
12y
746
64
How I Formed My Own Views About AI Safety
Neel Nanda
9mo
6
9
When should you defer to expertise? A useful heuristic (Crosspost from EA forum)
Noosphere89
2mo
3
28
The Prediction Hierarchy
RobinZ
12y
38
17
Timeless Modesty?
abramdemski
5y
2
13
How to use "philosophical majoritarianism"
jimmy
13y
9
94
Einstein's Superpowers
Eliezer Yudkowsky
14y
93
148
My research methodology
paulfchristiano
1y
36
33
Placing Yourself as an Instance of a Class
abramdemski
5y
5
154
The Proper Use of Humility
Eliezer Yudkowsky
16y
54
34
The underappreciated value of original thinking below the frontier
Emrik
1y
2
53
The Modesty Argument
Eliezer Yudkowsky
16y
40
43
Against Shooting Yourself in the Foot
Eliezer Yudkowsky
5y
3
31
In defence of epistemic modesty
Thrasymachus
5y
22
1
Christenson's "Epistemology of Disagreement: The Good News"
Aidan_Kierans
1y
0