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meritocratic
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alive
19 posts
Calibration
Underconfidence
20 posts
Games (posts describing)
Aumann's Agreement Theorem
Scoring Rules
Aggregation
137
Use Normal Predictions
Jan Christian Refsgaard
11mo
69
132
Irrational Modesty
Tomás B.
1y
7
95
Calibrate your self-assessments
Scott Alexander
11y
121
93
The Sin of Underconfidence
Eliezer Yudkowsky
13y
185
54
Qualitatively Confused
Eliezer Yudkowsky
14y
82
54
Calibration Test with database of 150,000+ questions
Nanashi
7y
31
51
Raising the forecasting waterline (part 1)
Morendil
10y
106
36
Simultaneous Overconfidence and Underconfidence
abramdemski
7y
6
32
Horrible LHC Inconsistency
Eliezer Yudkowsky
14y
34
30
Calibration for continuous quantities
Cyan
13y
13
28
The Importance of Self-Doubt
multifoliaterose
12y
746
25
A Motorcycle (and Calibration?) Accident
boggler
4y
11
20
Is there a.. more exact.. way of scoring a predictor's calibration?
mako yass
3y
6
19
What are good ML/AI related prediction / calibration questions for 2019?
james_t
3y
4
87
Bayesian Judo
Eliezer Yudkowsky
15y
108
86
Bayesian examination
Lê Nguyên Hoang
3y
56
62
A Proper Scoring Rule for Confidence Intervals
Scott Garrabrant
4y
47
53
Bayes-Up: An App for Sharing Bayesian-MCQ
Louis Faucon
2y
9
51
AI takeover tabletop RPG: "The Treacherous Turn"
Daniel Kokotajlo
20d
3
44
The AI Safety Game (UPDATED)
Daniel Kokotajlo
2y
9
43
Why is the surprisingly popular answer correct?
Stuart_Armstrong
5y
13
42
Credence Calibration Icebreaker Game
Ruby
8y
1
32
Aumann Agreement Game
abramdemski
7y
16
24
Credence calibration game FAQ
Academian
10y
57
23
The Error of Crowds
Eliezer Yudkowsky
15y
13
18
The Aumann's agreement theorem game (guess 2/3 of the average)
13y
156
14
The Mechanics of Disagreement
Eliezer Yudkowsky
14y
26
13
Alternative to Bayesian Score
Scott Garrabrant
9y
30